I haven't really been following the election very closely. That may be a good thing, as the mainstream media has been really bad at predicting the Iowa Caucus. In the last one, Howard Dean was supposed to be the frontrunner and the media was wondering why John Kerry was didn't even stand a chance. So being uninformed, I may have an edge. Here's my predictions:
Democrats: Obama first, Edwards second, Clinton third
Republicans: Huckabee first, Romney second, Thompson third
In the long run, Hillary will do better, but maybe not good enough. Huckabee will crash and burn as people realize just how crazy he really is. Who will gain from Huckabee's fall is really a toss up. It's really the weakest Republican field I've ever seen.
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There's a great story in today's times regarding the lack of access to the caucus for Iowa voters. Such as anyone who works at night, or anyone who would need to cast an absentee ballot, including our military men and women. God bless America, where everyone has a voice except for when they don't. (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/02/us/politics/02vote.html?_r=1&oref=slogin)
As for predictions, Huckabee is slipping in the polls lately. Seriously, are we grown ups in this country? Do we really need a President who doesn't believe in science? Who believes evolution is a "theory"?
Iowa is by no means a good predictor of how the nominations will shake down. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Edwards will surprise some people and win in Iowa, with the Clinton and Obama camps unable to reach consensus. On the Republican side, I think Romney will win here.
Just a final note, my own prediction: Any sense that Guliani might be the frontrunner will be totally debunked by Super Tuesday. He may be polling well now, but in the flyover states the fact that he's thrice (or is it twice?) divorced, has a history of liberal viewpoints on abortion, and is simply a fast-talking New Yorker will sink his campaign.
In the end, any Democrat over any Republican. It's too bad the pickings are slim. I'll be voting for Edwards in the NJ primary on Super Tuesday.
The field's slim all around. The republicans want Clinton to win since she's pretty much the only candidate they have a chance in hell of beating--there's a lot of americans that still carry a fervent dislike of her from times past. I've heard polls indicate Obama and Edwards are closing on Clinton in Iowa. But who knows until the vote actually happens.
Edwards seems the most genuine of all the Dem. candidates, to me at least.
Pete
I don't have time to read the story, but I've always felt that the rules skew the demographic towards older people. That's actually why I went with Huckabee. Older people are more likely to be Christian and hate Mormons. Iowa will be the last state Huckabee wins. He's just dropping too fast. As for Edwars winning Iowa, I don't think that would be much of a surprise. He polls well there and Iowa democrats seem to like a populist message. I'm not sure about Guilani. His social views are certainly out of the mainstream of the Republican party. But he's really pushing the "Let's kill every muslim on earth" message, and that will play well in the South. Any proposal that seeks to kill weird, non-Christian brown-skinned people is a sure winner in South Carolina.
Good Job, Tom! Way to bat .1000!
The results are in and it's just as you predicted! Have fun in Mungod and I hope you get to travel freely, and for free.
cheers, julie
What's most exciting about the Iowa caucus results is that almost twice the number of Democrats came out to caucus as in 2004, while the Republican number dropped from that same time period.
Huckabee's win will serve to further muddy the waters for the Republican nomination, while Obama may have gained much-needed momentum. Only a few weeks now to Super Tuesday!
Just goes to show you: if you want to really know what's going on in US politics, make sure to fly half way across the world and have limited access to the American news media.
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