Not Misinfomerd New Hampshire Predictions

Okay, I don't think I proved that watching network news is detrimental to your election knowledge, but I did demonstrate that there is little to gain from it. So here's the predictions for New wHamspshire. I have to work quick because there are many monks who want to use the computer.

Democrats: Clinton first, Obama second, Edwards third.
Republicans: Romney first, McCain second, Huckabee third.

I wanted to say Guiliani third, but as quickly as people are realizing that Huchabee is completely insane, they realizing the exact same thing about Guiliani as well. I think our reader Dave is right, Rudi's doomed. I guess even the Republicans aren't that crazy.

Update: Okay, the monks have gone to bed and I can write more. I know I wrote in the comments that Guliani may not be dead, but I'm rethinking that. If he can't poll in the top three in New Hampshire in any poll, he's obviously lost any traction he had. I still think his "kill the Muslims" message plays well in many Republican constituencies, but those same people obviously don't like the rest of who he is. Otherwise, he'd be polling in the double digits.

There are two reasons I like Clinton in New Hampshire. First, she needs to win there or she's toast. She's dropping in the South carolina polls and isn't going to win there. There are primaries in Michigan and Nevada, but I can't find any polling on those. But I don't think she can win in those states, either. If she doesn't have a win before Super Teusday, I don't see how she ever catches Obama. So she will put a lot of effort into New Hampshire. The second reason is that Bill made a surprising showing in New Hampshire when he was running. So I think her team knows New Hampshire well and can do well there.

I also see that McCain actualy polls better than Romney in New Hampshire, but I think his support is thin. Nobody really likes him anymore. He's alienated his old followers by trying to reach out to the evangelicals. And the evangelicals didn't exactly reach back. So I think his support comes from those who don't really like anyone and have nowhere else to go. And I don't think those people will show up for the election in large numbers. In the end, McCain still has a chance because the only candidate who has any kind of broad appeal is Thompson. And he's run a campaign so dismal it makes Mondale's look like a major adrenaline rush. At this point, I'm starting to think that Newt Gingrich might win the nomination in a brokered convention. It doesn't look like any other Republican has a better chance. Well, maybe Romney. He has the advantage of having taken every position on every issue. So you probably agree with something he's said in his career no matter who you are. But then again, you disagree as well.