NV-SC Predictions

I'll continue with the predictions:

Nevada is really tough. It's their first ever caucus, so nobody really knows how the system will work. Polling is light on the Democratic side and almost non- existent on the Republican side. Obama got some lift with the endorsement by the restaurant workers union and the upholding of the at large caucuses for casino workers. The Republicans have mostly ignored the caucuses, favoring the same-day primary in South Carolina. The Democrats hold their South Carolina primary next week, so this isn't a conflict for them. Romney is the only Republican to spend any time there and leads the polls. But Rudy has actually polled well in Nevada (must be the mafia connections), so he might have a surprising showing given the expected low turnout. Huckabee's moral attitudes will hurt him in Nevada. You'd think Thompson would try to get some delegates in Nevada given the weak competition, but he hasn't. So here it is:

Republicans: Romney first, McCain second, Giuliani third.

Democrats: Obama first, Clinton second, Edwards third.

South Carolina should be easier to call given that only one party has a primary this week. But it's bunched up such that first and second are even statistically, and so are third and fourth. Between McCain and Huckabee, I think McCain wants it more because of the 2000 results. But Huckabee has more dedicated followers. Given the expected nasty weather, I think Huckabee takes it. Between Thompson and Giuliani, I think Thompson takes it, but only because he's been camped out down there for a while now. Well, also because Giuliani is really focusing on the upcoming Florida primary (lot of retired and wealthy New Yorkers there- he has a chance). And I have a hard time seeing South Carolina voters even voting for a Catholic, much less a New Yorker. So, here it is:

Republicans: Huckabee first, McCain second, Thompson third.

If Thompson doesn't get a third place, I think he drops out and endorses nobody. If Huckabee wins SC, I think the party bigwigs will start pushing voters towards McCain. They really don't want Huckabee to win it all.