I'm not sure that anyone is reading anymore, but I'll do my South Carolina predictions:
Democrats: Obama first, Clinton second, Edwards third.
I didn't do so well in the last primaries. I was a little surprised by Clinton's Nevada win, and I now think Obama is pretty much doomed. He'll do fine in the South, but Hillary will win everything else. She can't wrap it up on Super Tuesday (mathematically impossible), but she could be the prohibitive favorite. Edwards will hang in there to try to be kingmaker at the convention, but that may not work for him. Hillary will be too strong to need help from Edwards.
McCain's SC win didn't surprise me that much. It did put Huckabee out of any real running, but he still can be a kingmaker, so he'll stay in. Romney is starting to look strong as he is taking most of Thompson's supporters. But he'll have problems in the Southern states with the Mormon issue. And voters in the Northeast won't really recognize him with his change in positions on nearly every issue. I think the Republicans are heading for a brokered convention, with Huckabee being a major wrench in the system.
By the way, I've added a picture at the bottom (apparently, that's the only place I can put pictures). I'll have more as time goes on.
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3 comments:
I'm very much hoping for a strong showing from Edwards here, but he'll still be a distant third. He's got my vote in the NJ primaries, regardless.
One thing has definitely become clear in January and in the debates: compared to Clinton and Edwards, Obama is a political lightweight. Not just in how he delivers himself and his ideas, but in the machine behind him, the staffers and policy makers and speechwriters. The Clinton and Edwards camps are so much more effective in terms of getting a Presidential message out.
I like McCain and hope he continues to do well. Wouldn't a brokered convention be freakin' great. Best news: Guliani, after staking everything on FL will probably finish no better than third there. I want that scumbag finished.
D
Well, it doesn't look like a strong showing for Edwards. Amazingly, he's not doing that poorly on the money front. He will certainly stay in through Super Tuesday. I think his only real chance is to be a kingmaker in a brokered convention. But even that's in doubt now that I've looked at how the delegates are awarded. It turns out that 40% of the delegates will be unelected "super- delegates". They will be the kingmakers, not Edwards.
I'm not sure I'd classify Obama as a lightweight. He can give a great speech, and I think he brings in some voters the democrats would otherwise lose (disenfranchised republicans, mostly). He does have two serious problems, however. He's not a good debater and he doesn't fight back well when attacked. His responses are always too complicated and nuanced to have any real effect. Ultimately, those two things will doom his candidacy and we will have Hillary as our candidate.
As a senator, McCain really pisses me off. He talks a good game on some issues that are important to me, but when it comes time to vote, he caves to Bush every time. Maybe as president he might be better, but I'm not convinced yet. But I do think he's the republicans' strongest general election candidate.
As for Rudy, if Florida didn't allow early voting, Rudy might not even get third place. He's falling that fast. But the early voting started before his collapse, so those early votes should carry him to a weak third place finish.
Huckabee is done, he's out of money at a time when money will play a huge factor. But he won't drop out because he'll have some real leverage at the convention if he can end up with 15% of the delegates. And he can do that because the republicans don't have super- delegates. He may end up being the kingmaker that Edwards wishes he could be.
http://thisoldgrouse.blogspot.com/
Tom,
You might see how this guy is inserting the pictures.
BillR
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