Monday, January 7, 2008
The Danger of Early Predictions
Wow, Obama's really moving up in the New Hampshire polling. I guess I should have waited longer before making a prediction. I think Clinton will do better than the latest polls show, but it doesn't look like she'll win. And if she doesn't, her campaign is all but over. I also see that McCain is opening up a bigger lead in all the polls. I'm still not convinced yet that he can win New Hampshire, but it's looking a lot more probable.
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3 comments:
Darth in Asia.
Tom- it's Jay Jones. Hooper was at the house this weekend and told me about your adventure. Update my e-mail, but I will hang onto this site and watch for you.
jjones_3p@austin.rr.com
have fun!
j
Obama is crushing Clinton in today's polling. However, the reality of the primary is another thing entirely. Obama looks strong here.
I've been in the Edwards camp from the beginning, but I have to say, if Obama is the clear winner in NH, and shows well in SC, MI, NV, and FL, it very well might change my vote come Super Tuesday.
Obama has a lot going for him: the Republicans fear his candidacy, much more than Edwards or Clinton (referred to as the anti christ dragon bitch in most Rep. literature). Also, it seems independents are flocking to his camp right now. That bodes well for the general election.
But I'm leaning that way now because when I think about an Obama/Richardson ticket, what can the Republicans put together that could compete?
Long way to go, but all the current trends bode well for regime change.
JJ- It's good to hear from you! There's not much left on my trip, but check out the archives. It's certainly been interesting.
Dave- Yes the actual voting doesn't always match the polling. But I really think Obama will win NH now. Sadly, voters tend to flock to the leader, making Iowa far too influential. I'd prefer to see a double primary, with every state voting on the same day in two rounds. I'm a little tired of Iowa anointing our leaders.
Obama- Richardson? You know, Richardson was the guy who looked best on paper. And he was the guy I supported in the very beginning. But as the debates have shown, Richardson is completely devoid of mojo. If it's possible to have a negative amount of mojo, Bill's got it. But maybe that's not very important in a VP candidate. He would add experience, and Obama's already a rock star.
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