I think we're moving into the phase where this blog becomes more of a forum for political discussion. But I will add some more pictures from the trip (see below). Anyway, I'll offer my thoughts on the Clinton- Obama Death Match. Okay, it wasn't really a death match. In fact, it was remarkably cordial. It's hard to say whom that really helped. Clinton is the better debater whether it's polite or not. But Obama has become a much better debater as the campaign has gone on. By the end of the campaign, I suspect he'll be as nimble, ruthless and polished as Hillary. I thought he held his own pretty well.
In fact, I think he won it by a hair. Hillary certainly showed that she has the better command of the facts and a more sophisticated policy stance. But she still gets tripped up the her Iraq authorization vote. What she needs to say is this: "That vote was a mistake, but we need to move on to what to do about it now." But, like her husband, she will need to be dragged, kicking and screaming, to actually face that truth. And then she still won't acknowledge or admit it. Obama is wise to push the "judgement" issue. He was right, after all. It's really that issue that makes me think that Obama won. He responded to every question well (although there were a few awkward moments), but Hillary really doesn't have an answer to one question that's been asked of her for years. To put it in baseball terms, Obama won a 1-0 game on an unearned run. But in the end, I think either of them will make a solid candidate.
By the way, have any of you noticed that "Obama" isn't in Firefox's spell check feature? What's up with that? They send me an update nearly every day. Can't one of those contain an update to the spelling dictionary that adds Obama's name? Clinton is already in. And so is McCain. Even Romney is in. So why not Obama? He's, like, running for president, you know. People might actually talk about him.
Thursday, January 31, 2008
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Forgot Florida
I forgot to post my Florida predictions, which turned out to be perfectly accurate. Guiliani (or 9ui11ani) is done. It seems the early voting allowed him to pull off a third place finish against Huckabee, but that wasn't good enough. He'll endorse McCain tomorrow. Hillary won Florida, but it's not clear that she will get any delegates from it. But I don't think it will matter. Obama will do well enough on Super Tuesday to hang in the race, but not well enough to overcome his deficit in super delegates. Hillary will win the nomination without needing the Michigan and Florida delegates. On the Republican side, two things can happen. One is that Huckabee eventually drops out and gives his delegates to McCain to avoid a brokered convention. The other is that Huckabee stays in and forces a brokered convention. Under that circumstance, I'd give even odds to McCain, Romney, and Newt Gingrich. Either way, I think Huckabee is now the favorite for the VP slot. He is also, strangely, the candidate with the most power in the GOP race. As punishment for my failure to predict Florida, I will do a state by state prediction of Super Tuesday. But, for now, I'll predict the final: it will be McCain vs Clinton in the presidential election, and Clinton will win. Give credit to where it's due, the Clintons know how to win. They lost one election when they were young, and have won every election since then. They know how to beat McCain (it's the economy, stupid), and they will do it.
Update: This is pretty funny (from the National Review):
http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NjgwNjIxZDA0MjM4YzkyMWE1ZTZmMDcwOGIxNGZiYzg=
Feel the schadenfreude.
Update: This is pretty funny (from the National Review):
http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NjgwNjIxZDA0MjM4YzkyMWE1ZTZmMDcwOGIxNGZiYzg=
Feel the schadenfreude.
Friday, January 25, 2008
South Carolina
I'm not sure that anyone is reading anymore, but I'll do my South Carolina predictions:
Democrats: Obama first, Clinton second, Edwards third.
I didn't do so well in the last primaries. I was a little surprised by Clinton's Nevada win, and I now think Obama is pretty much doomed. He'll do fine in the South, but Hillary will win everything else. She can't wrap it up on Super Tuesday (mathematically impossible), but she could be the prohibitive favorite. Edwards will hang in there to try to be kingmaker at the convention, but that may not work for him. Hillary will be too strong to need help from Edwards.
McCain's SC win didn't surprise me that much. It did put Huckabee out of any real running, but he still can be a kingmaker, so he'll stay in. Romney is starting to look strong as he is taking most of Thompson's supporters. But he'll have problems in the Southern states with the Mormon issue. And voters in the Northeast won't really recognize him with his change in positions on nearly every issue. I think the Republicans are heading for a brokered convention, with Huckabee being a major wrench in the system.
By the way, I've added a picture at the bottom (apparently, that's the only place I can put pictures). I'll have more as time goes on.
Democrats: Obama first, Clinton second, Edwards third.
I didn't do so well in the last primaries. I was a little surprised by Clinton's Nevada win, and I now think Obama is pretty much doomed. He'll do fine in the South, but Hillary will win everything else. She can't wrap it up on Super Tuesday (mathematically impossible), but she could be the prohibitive favorite. Edwards will hang in there to try to be kingmaker at the convention, but that may not work for him. Hillary will be too strong to need help from Edwards.
McCain's SC win didn't surprise me that much. It did put Huckabee out of any real running, but he still can be a kingmaker, so he'll stay in. Romney is starting to look strong as he is taking most of Thompson's supporters. But he'll have problems in the Southern states with the Mormon issue. And voters in the Northeast won't really recognize him with his change in positions on nearly every issue. I think the Republicans are heading for a brokered convention, with Huckabee being a major wrench in the system.
By the way, I've added a picture at the bottom (apparently, that's the only place I can put pictures). I'll have more as time goes on.
Saturday, January 19, 2008
NV-SC Predictions
I'll continue with the predictions:
Nevada is really tough. It's their first ever caucus, so nobody really knows how the system will work. Polling is light on the Democratic side and almost non- existent on the Republican side. Obama got some lift with the endorsement by the restaurant workers union and the upholding of the at large caucuses for casino workers. The Republicans have mostly ignored the caucuses, favoring the same-day primary in South Carolina. The Democrats hold their South Carolina primary next week, so this isn't a conflict for them. Romney is the only Republican to spend any time there and leads the polls. But Rudy has actually polled well in Nevada (must be the mafia connections), so he might have a surprising showing given the expected low turnout. Huckabee's moral attitudes will hurt him in Nevada. You'd think Thompson would try to get some delegates in Nevada given the weak competition, but he hasn't. So here it is:
Republicans: Romney first, McCain second, Giuliani third.
Democrats: Obama first, Clinton second, Edwards third.
South Carolina should be easier to call given that only one party has a primary this week. But it's bunched up such that first and second are even statistically, and so are third and fourth. Between McCain and Huckabee, I think McCain wants it more because of the 2000 results. But Huckabee has more dedicated followers. Given the expected nasty weather, I think Huckabee takes it. Between Thompson and Giuliani, I think Thompson takes it, but only because he's been camped out down there for a while now. Well, also because Giuliani is really focusing on the upcoming Florida primary (lot of retired and wealthy New Yorkers there- he has a chance). And I have a hard time seeing South Carolina voters even voting for a Catholic, much less a New Yorker. So, here it is:
Republicans: Huckabee first, McCain second, Thompson third.
If Thompson doesn't get a third place, I think he drops out and endorses nobody. If Huckabee wins SC, I think the party bigwigs will start pushing voters towards McCain. They really don't want Huckabee to win it all.
Nevada is really tough. It's their first ever caucus, so nobody really knows how the system will work. Polling is light on the Democratic side and almost non- existent on the Republican side. Obama got some lift with the endorsement by the restaurant workers union and the upholding of the at large caucuses for casino workers. The Republicans have mostly ignored the caucuses, favoring the same-day primary in South Carolina. The Democrats hold their South Carolina primary next week, so this isn't a conflict for them. Romney is the only Republican to spend any time there and leads the polls. But Rudy has actually polled well in Nevada (must be the mafia connections), so he might have a surprising showing given the expected low turnout. Huckabee's moral attitudes will hurt him in Nevada. You'd think Thompson would try to get some delegates in Nevada given the weak competition, but he hasn't. So here it is:
Republicans: Romney first, McCain second, Giuliani third.
Democrats: Obama first, Clinton second, Edwards third.
South Carolina should be easier to call given that only one party has a primary this week. But it's bunched up such that first and second are even statistically, and so are third and fourth. Between McCain and Huckabee, I think McCain wants it more because of the 2000 results. But Huckabee has more dedicated followers. Given the expected nasty weather, I think Huckabee takes it. Between Thompson and Giuliani, I think Thompson takes it, but only because he's been camped out down there for a while now. Well, also because Giuliani is really focusing on the upcoming Florida primary (lot of retired and wealthy New Yorkers there- he has a chance). And I have a hard time seeing South Carolina voters even voting for a Catholic, much less a New Yorker. So, here it is:
Republicans: Huckabee first, McCain second, Thompson third.
If Thompson doesn't get a third place, I think he drops out and endorses nobody. If Huckabee wins SC, I think the party bigwigs will start pushing voters towards McCain. They really don't want Huckabee to win it all.
Recovering
Well, I've been back home for two days. It seems every time I take another plane flight, my flu comes back. And I'm still not time- adjusted yet, which is a little unusual for me. And I have work to do, so I still haven't completely unpacked yet. Hopefully, I'll be better in a few days and can tackle the huge pile of woolens and silks that all need to be hand- washed. That is especially true of the wool sweaters which soaked up most of the rum spillage in transit. But I did get back safely.
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
Wow
In Michigan, Hillary got 55% to 36% uncommitted. Wow. And this is in a race where Edwards and Obama weren't on the ballot and Democrats could vote in the Republican primary instead. I should note that, for the first time, Republican turnout outnumbered the democrats. And by amost a 2-to-1 margin. That implies a lot of crossover voting. The ABC vote (Anyone But Clinton) is for real. But the problem is that nobody else really has a clear second place yet. Yes, Obama polls better now, but he's falling. Edwards could win Nevada and place well in South Carolina. So, both could go on to Super Tuesday because they will both have a shot. After that though, one has to drop out or it will be Hillary winning the nomination. But which one drops? I used to think that was obvious, but support for Obama seems to be slipping without Hillary really gaining. Edwards may still have a chance. In the end though, unless Obama and Edwards come to some agreement, I think Hillary has the upper hand. That's especially the case in a brokered convention. Someone's got to beat her before the convention or she's a shoo-in.
On the Republican side, who knows? McCain would be the strongest in the general election, but that may not be enough for him. Romney can win in a state with lots of Mormons and where his dad was governor. But does he have anything else? Huckabee is a complete lunatic, but that works in the South. But the South ain't enough for the nomination. Some in the right wing blogoshere still think Thompson will win, but the guy hasn't broken into double digits yet. Rudi thinks he's okay in the standings, but he's batshit crazy. I'm still holding out for Newt Gingritch in that race.
(corrected for typos)
On the Republican side, who knows? McCain would be the strongest in the general election, but that may not be enough for him. Romney can win in a state with lots of Mormons and where his dad was governor. But does he have anything else? Huckabee is a complete lunatic, but that works in the South. But the South ain't enough for the nomination. Some in the right wing blogoshere still think Thompson will win, but the guy hasn't broken into double digits yet. Rudi thinks he's okay in the standings, but he's batshit crazy. I'm still holding out for Newt Gingritch in that race.
(corrected for typos)
The Center of the Universe
I had a light day in the Bay Area. But I needed it. The jouney from Bangkok to San Francisco takes about 17 hours. But you arrive 30 minutes later on the same day (International Date Line). I've heard people complain about jet lag, but trust me, that's a really weird shift. And I've been through some radical time shifts many times before. There was a little glitch in being picked up (my fault), but otherwise the trip went smoothly. I am one more bottle short on the rum, but that's because I gave one to my sister. And the weapons were no problem. But they are minor weapons. My chef's knife is deadlier.
So my first night, Julie and I went out for a few beers and then talked. She had to go to bed early because she works now (first time in ten years). I pretty much slept the entire next day. Except for making my accurate Michigan predictions, of course. Today, we went out to my favorite Cuban restaurant in Palo Alto. I can't ever remember the name, but it's really good. Then we drank some beers, scotch, and Indian rum. And then we switched to me making bloody mary's by the glass. Different taste every time. And that's where I am now. I pitty Julie having to going to work, but I am in full knowledge of the fact that I will be in the same situation tomorrow. After a short flight, of course.
But it was great being in the Center of the Universe again. It always amazes me when I travel here about the importance of this area. The Bay Area of California is Ground Zero for technoligical development. It's the only place where a large portion of the population wakes up with the thought: "How am I going to change the world today?". There are many places, including Boulder, where there is a tremendous amout of development. But the Bay Area is where the real ideas start and where the really big ideas come into being. Nowhere else really compares. They have the critical mass of intellect, and it's wonderful to see.
So that's about it for the real time trip blogging, but there is more to come. I will post some low resolution pictures. If you want 8 Mpixel copies, email me about that. I will also continue my election predictions. I'm doing pretty well so far, but Super Teusday looms as a monstrosity of unpredictability. That will be my Vietnam. For SC/NV, I'll predict them individually, but I doubt I want to try to predict Super Teusday on an individual basis. We'll see.
So my first night, Julie and I went out for a few beers and then talked. She had to go to bed early because she works now (first time in ten years). I pretty much slept the entire next day. Except for making my accurate Michigan predictions, of course. Today, we went out to my favorite Cuban restaurant in Palo Alto. I can't ever remember the name, but it's really good. Then we drank some beers, scotch, and Indian rum. And then we switched to me making bloody mary's by the glass. Different taste every time. And that's where I am now. I pitty Julie having to going to work, but I am in full knowledge of the fact that I will be in the same situation tomorrow. After a short flight, of course.
But it was great being in the Center of the Universe again. It always amazes me when I travel here about the importance of this area. The Bay Area of California is Ground Zero for technoligical development. It's the only place where a large portion of the population wakes up with the thought: "How am I going to change the world today?". There are many places, including Boulder, where there is a tremendous amout of development. But the Bay Area is where the real ideas start and where the really big ideas come into being. Nowhere else really compares. They have the critical mass of intellect, and it's wonderful to see.
So that's about it for the real time trip blogging, but there is more to come. I will post some low resolution pictures. If you want 8 Mpixel copies, email me about that. I will also continue my election predictions. I'm doing pretty well so far, but Super Teusday looms as a monstrosity of unpredictability. That will be my Vietnam. For SC/NV, I'll predict them individually, but I doubt I want to try to predict Super Teusday on an individual basis. We'll see.
Tuesday, January 15, 2008
Catching Up on Bangkok
Sorry about the light posting. My schedule Bangkok was a little hectic. The first night, I met up with my roommate Dan and we went to the Saxophone Pub (near the Victory monument). Much is written about the Bangkok nightlife, but the music scene is often neglected. That's too bad, because Bangkok is probably the live music capital of Asia. I've seen a dozen or so bands in Bangkok, and they have all been good. Our night at the Saxophone was no exception. If you go to tourist bars, the music will generally be cover songs. Unless you see a hip hop band, which will be original. But if you go to the bars the locals hang out at, you will see original music that is very good. But the lyrics will be in Thai. The Saxophone is a tourist bar, and they mostly have blues and jazz. We saw one blues band and one funk band, and they were both excellent. The funk band had a foreign singer (Australian), who I think I had seen before. It was a good night.
The next day, I manged to wake up early enough to catch the second half of the Patriots game at an American bar (The Tavern- Sukhumvit Soi 4). I then stayed a while to see who would show up. You tend to meet some pretty interesting ex-pats at places like that. I met three guys who were there for medical treatment- one American, one Brit, and one Canadian. The Canadian got a three level lumbar fusion and two levels of cervical artificial disks. He saved about $200,000 off the quotes he had from America. Not bad. In fact, even if he were an American with health insurance, he still would have paid more in co-pays in America. That's scary.
Dan wasn't feeling well when I got back, so I went to bed early. That was good for me because I could then wake up early enough to catch the Giants game at the same bar. They had stayed open all night to show the playoff games (it took some bribes for them to do so). The Giants game started at 4:30AM, and I just barely made it. But it was a good game. I was impressed with the Giants, but not enough to believe they will beat the Packers in the next game. After the game, I stayed for a few more drinks, and then packed and left for the airport.
So, now I am in Menlo Park, CA at my sister's house. I leave for home tomorrow.
The next day, I manged to wake up early enough to catch the second half of the Patriots game at an American bar (The Tavern- Sukhumvit Soi 4). I then stayed a while to see who would show up. You tend to meet some pretty interesting ex-pats at places like that. I met three guys who were there for medical treatment- one American, one Brit, and one Canadian. The Canadian got a three level lumbar fusion and two levels of cervical artificial disks. He saved about $200,000 off the quotes he had from America. Not bad. In fact, even if he were an American with health insurance, he still would have paid more in co-pays in America. That's scary.
Dan wasn't feeling well when I got back, so I went to bed early. That was good for me because I could then wake up early enough to catch the Giants game at the same bar. They had stayed open all night to show the playoff games (it took some bribes for them to do so). The Giants game started at 4:30AM, and I just barely made it. But it was a good game. I was impressed with the Giants, but not enough to believe they will beat the Packers in the next game. After the game, I stayed for a few more drinks, and then packed and left for the airport.
So, now I am in Menlo Park, CA at my sister's house. I leave for home tomorrow.
Michigan Predictions
Okay, I think Romney will stop his slide and pull out a win. He needs to, at least.
Republicans: Romney first, McCain second, Huckabee third
Democrats: Hillary first- the race doesn't count and Edwards and Obama have boycotted.
Republicans: Romney first, McCain second, Huckabee third
Democrats: Hillary first- the race doesn't count and Edwards and Obama have boycotted.
Friday, January 11, 2008
Back in the Land of Smiles
Well, I made it safely to Thailand. The rum transport hasn't gone as smoothly is I had hoped. I had to pay 4,000 rupees ($104) for having an extra bag. And the Indian baggage handlers were a little rough. When I got my bag, it was wet and smelled like rum. So, I lost one bottle. I'm starting to realize that buying things in foreign countries is more trouble than it's worth. Most things can be bought online now. So, I'll stick to buying silks and weapons that are easier to deal with. But at least Customs was even easier than expected. There's is usually a guy at the Customs desk who reads his newspaper and ignores everyone walking by. This time, there wasn't even anyone working the customs desk.
So it's nice here in Bangkok. It sure is a relief to bask in the sanity, cleanliness, and peacefulness of Bangkok. Okay, I can hear some of you laughing from all the way over here. But that really wasn't a joke. Compared to India, Bangkok really is sane, clean and peaceful. And that's compared to Bangalore, which is one of the nicest places in India. I would would also add that Bangkok has really improved in the five years I've been coming here. They have banned the two stroke engine from the city and imposed stricter emmissions standards on factories. The garbage removal is far more frequent. Drivers use their horns much less frequently, and most ares of Bangkok are now served by clean and efficient public transportation. They have even started to clean up the canals, although they have a long way to go on that account. But, really, it's actually nice in Bangkok now.
So it's nice here in Bangkok. It sure is a relief to bask in the sanity, cleanliness, and peacefulness of Bangkok. Okay, I can hear some of you laughing from all the way over here. But that really wasn't a joke. Compared to India, Bangkok really is sane, clean and peaceful. And that's compared to Bangalore, which is one of the nicest places in India. I would would also add that Bangkok has really improved in the five years I've been coming here. They have banned the two stroke engine from the city and imposed stricter emmissions standards on factories. The garbage removal is far more frequent. Drivers use their horns much less frequently, and most ares of Bangkok are now served by clean and efficient public transportation. They have even started to clean up the canals, although they have a long way to go on that account. But, really, it's actually nice in Bangkok now.
Thursday, January 10, 2008
Leaving India
Today is my last day in India. Tonight, I'm off to the Land of Smiles. I haven't done much in Bangalore because I have some kind of flu. I'm getting better and shouldbe healthy by the time I reach Bangkok. I did some shoping yesterday and today. I got some music CDs, awhole lot of rum, and a new carry-on. The carry-on was really expensive ($50). I'm used to buying them in Bangkok, where they never cost more than $15. So tonight, I'll be bringing a carry-on full of rum and weapons. That shouldn't be a problem in Bangkok, but the American Customs people will surely give me trouble with that.
India's has certainly been interesting. It's kind of the Everest of travel, with Africa being K-2. It's a lot more difficult to travel in India than in Southeast Asia. But even with the difficulties, India is worth it. But one thing is certain: you need alot of patience tod eal with India.
India's has certainly been interesting. It's kind of the Everest of travel, with Africa being K-2. It's a lot more difficult to travel in India than in Southeast Asia. But even with the difficulties, India is worth it. But one thing is certain: you need alot of patience tod eal with India.
Wednesday, January 9, 2008
Full Circle
Well, I've come full circle and now I'm back in Bangalore. And it's not just my location that's the same. When I arrived in Bangalore, I had a really nasty flu from Colorado. Now, I have some unknown flu-like illness from India. I have no recent insect bites, so I'm not really sure how I got this illness. It looks like I should ave stuck with Clinton in my New Hampshire prediction. I'd write more, but really don't have the energy.
Monday, January 7, 2008
Mysore
We made it to Mysore, and I got a much needed shower. Well, not exactly a shower, but there was hot water. Tamding's place in Mundgod only has cold water, and I'm a wimp when it comes to cold showers. My bucket shower with hot water was nice after a ten hour train ride. But we did get second class on the train, so I could sleep. Except the bunks are shorter than I am, so it's not exactly a good sleep on Indian trains. I'm still a bit confused by all the people who wish they were tall. It sucks when you're in Asia. Although you can see over the crowd.
We went to Mysore Palace, which was impressive. What was weird is that it was built in its current form in 1912. I guess it was only weird because I don't know my Indian history. Mysore had remained an independent kingdom during the British rule, which is why the king could rebuild his palace without British interference. Tonight, we will go to the botanical gardens, which will be the last tourist stop in India for me on this trip.
We went to Mysore Palace, which was impressive. What was weird is that it was built in its current form in 1912. I guess it was only weird because I don't know my Indian history. Mysore had remained an independent kingdom during the British rule, which is why the king could rebuild his palace without British interference. Tonight, we will go to the botanical gardens, which will be the last tourist stop in India for me on this trip.
Blowing with the Wind
Okay, I'm blowing with the wind on this. Here's my revised picks for New Hampshire
Democrats: Obama first, Clinton second, Edwards third.
Republicans: McCain first, Romney second, Huckabee third.
I'm starting to think that the dems will wrap the primary season up quickly, while the reps may not have a winner before the convention.
Democrats: Obama first, Clinton second, Edwards third.
Republicans: McCain first, Romney second, Huckabee third.
I'm starting to think that the dems will wrap the primary season up quickly, while the reps may not have a winner before the convention.
The Danger of Early Predictions
Wow, Obama's really moving up in the New Hampshire polling. I guess I should have waited longer before making a prediction. I think Clinton will do better than the latest polls show, but it doesn't look like she'll win. And if she doesn't, her campaign is all but over. I also see that McCain is opening up a bigger lead in all the polls. I'm still not convinced yet that he can win New Hampshire, but it's looking a lot more probable.
Drepung Loseling Temple
We went to the inauguration of the new Drepung loseling Temple in Mundgod today. Fortunately, Tamding's parents had some special guest badges , which allowed us to sit on chairs and in the shade of a large tarp. Given the heat of southern India, that was really nice. In many ways, it was similar to the opening of any new building. There were compliments and offering of thanks to the contsruction company. There were speeches by influential politicians. There were stories about why the building was needed and the history of its construction. But there were some differences.
Obviously, the speech by His Holiness the 14th Dalai Lama was a little atypical for a building opening. He spent a lot of time talking about the need for those in the audience to make the temple worthwhile by seeking enlightenment. In all, it was pretty much what I would have expected from him. It was a very good speech.
What was really unexpected was the speech by His Holiness Sri Sri Ravi Shankar (not to be confused with the musician). Mr. Shankar is one of India's most influential Hindu yogis. I was somewhat, but not completely, surprised that a Hindu yogi would be blessing a new Buddhist temple. You wouldn't expect a rabbi to be blessing a new Catholic church, would you? But the Dalai Lama and Sri Sri Ravi Shankar are good friends and both believe strongly in cooperation between the world's religions. I actually didn't know too much about Mr. Shankar him until this trip to India. But he seems like an impressive person, and his speech today was very good. I feel honored to have heard speeches by these two great men on the same day.
Right now, I'm back in Hubli and the real world of India. Mundgod is kind of an oasis of peacefulness in an otherwise crowded and chaotic country. But that shouldn't be surprising as the majority of residents of the refugee settlement are Buddhist monks. Peacefulness is very big among that crowd. So we are leaving on an overnight train to Mysore, near Bangalore. My stay in India is now drawing to a close, and Mysore will be the last tourist stop. After that, we go to Bangalore and then I fly back to Bangkok.
Obviously, the speech by His Holiness the 14th Dalai Lama was a little atypical for a building opening. He spent a lot of time talking about the need for those in the audience to make the temple worthwhile by seeking enlightenment. In all, it was pretty much what I would have expected from him. It was a very good speech.
What was really unexpected was the speech by His Holiness Sri Sri Ravi Shankar (not to be confused with the musician). Mr. Shankar is one of India's most influential Hindu yogis. I was somewhat, but not completely, surprised that a Hindu yogi would be blessing a new Buddhist temple. You wouldn't expect a rabbi to be blessing a new Catholic church, would you? But the Dalai Lama and Sri Sri Ravi Shankar are good friends and both believe strongly in cooperation between the world's religions. I actually didn't know too much about Mr. Shankar him until this trip to India. But he seems like an impressive person, and his speech today was very good. I feel honored to have heard speeches by these two great men on the same day.
Right now, I'm back in Hubli and the real world of India. Mundgod is kind of an oasis of peacefulness in an otherwise crowded and chaotic country. But that shouldn't be surprising as the majority of residents of the refugee settlement are Buddhist monks. Peacefulness is very big among that crowd. So we are leaving on an overnight train to Mysore, near Bangalore. My stay in India is now drawing to a close, and Mysore will be the last tourist stop. After that, we go to Bangalore and then I fly back to Bangkok.
Sunday, January 6, 2008
Slow Day
It was a slow day here in Mundgod. It's Sunday, which is a national holiday every week. That's kind of strange because hardly anyone in India is a Christian. It's one of those relics left over from the Raj (British rule). So there were no teachings from the Dalai Lama today. I basically watched TV (CSI, CSI: Miami, CSI: NY, and a Bollywood movie). It's nice to have days like that on a long vacation. We also did laundry, although we paid an Indian women to actually do the washing and hanging clothes on the line. We had to do the folding.
Yesterday, we caught the end of His Holiness's teaching. Although we missed some of it because the radio broke and we had to buy another one. And then the end part was just offerings for the Dalai Lama, so it was chanting that wasn't translated. In the afternoon, I went to take pictures of the new Drepung Loseling temple that will be dedicated tomorrow. I had to do some smooth talking with the police to get on the grounds, and I was not allowed inside. But I was inside two years ago when it was being built and it was mostly done then. So I can imagine what it looks like now.
After that, I managed to find one of the items I was hoping to buy when in India: a tapestry featuring the Tibetan Wheel of Life motif. It wasn't exactly what I was hoping for as the Wheel of Life portion is printed on paper. I was hoping that would be silk too, but that would be really expensive. It's pretty hard to print on silk, and damn near impossible to get the resolution that would be required. It could be done with a pile weave or a four color weave, but it would take a very thin thread (5-10 strand) and would take an extremely skilled weaver to accomplish. So I guess I should be happy to get it on paper with silk framing. As usual, Tamding said I paid too much, and I probably did. But I got what I wanted. And getting ripped of in India is still a bargain compared to the US.
Oh, there's a tea update. Apparently one person has recieved tea. Their tea came via SpeedPost, which is a little faster than the Indian Postal service. But it had the same crazy packaging that all the others had and made it through Customs. So you might actually get some tea soon. If you do, email me so I know.
Yesterday, we caught the end of His Holiness's teaching. Although we missed some of it because the radio broke and we had to buy another one. And then the end part was just offerings for the Dalai Lama, so it was chanting that wasn't translated. In the afternoon, I went to take pictures of the new Drepung Loseling temple that will be dedicated tomorrow. I had to do some smooth talking with the police to get on the grounds, and I was not allowed inside. But I was inside two years ago when it was being built and it was mostly done then. So I can imagine what it looks like now.
After that, I managed to find one of the items I was hoping to buy when in India: a tapestry featuring the Tibetan Wheel of Life motif. It wasn't exactly what I was hoping for as the Wheel of Life portion is printed on paper. I was hoping that would be silk too, but that would be really expensive. It's pretty hard to print on silk, and damn near impossible to get the resolution that would be required. It could be done with a pile weave or a four color weave, but it would take a very thin thread (5-10 strand) and would take an extremely skilled weaver to accomplish. So I guess I should be happy to get it on paper with silk framing. As usual, Tamding said I paid too much, and I probably did. But I got what I wanted. And getting ripped of in India is still a bargain compared to the US.
Oh, there's a tea update. Apparently one person has recieved tea. Their tea came via SpeedPost, which is a little faster than the Indian Postal service. But it had the same crazy packaging that all the others had and made it through Customs. So you might actually get some tea soon. If you do, email me so I know.
Saturday, January 5, 2008
Not Misinfomerd New Hampshire Predictions
Okay, I don't think I proved that watching network news is detrimental to your election knowledge, but I did demonstrate that there is little to gain from it. So here's the predictions for New wHamspshire. I have to work quick because there are many monks who want to use the computer.
Democrats: Clinton first, Obama second, Edwards third.
Republicans: Romney first, McCain second, Huckabee third.
I wanted to say Guiliani third, but as quickly as people are realizing that Huchabee is completely insane, they realizing the exact same thing about Guiliani as well. I think our reader Dave is right, Rudi's doomed. I guess even the Republicans aren't that crazy.
Update: Okay, the monks have gone to bed and I can write more. I know I wrote in the comments that Guliani may not be dead, but I'm rethinking that. If he can't poll in the top three in New Hampshire in any poll, he's obviously lost any traction he had. I still think his "kill the Muslims" message plays well in many Republican constituencies, but those same people obviously don't like the rest of who he is. Otherwise, he'd be polling in the double digits.
There are two reasons I like Clinton in New Hampshire. First, she needs to win there or she's toast. She's dropping in the South carolina polls and isn't going to win there. There are primaries in Michigan and Nevada, but I can't find any polling on those. But I don't think she can win in those states, either. If she doesn't have a win before Super Teusday, I don't see how she ever catches Obama. So she will put a lot of effort into New Hampshire. The second reason is that Bill made a surprising showing in New Hampshire when he was running. So I think her team knows New Hampshire well and can do well there.
I also see that McCain actualy polls better than Romney in New Hampshire, but I think his support is thin. Nobody really likes him anymore. He's alienated his old followers by trying to reach out to the evangelicals. And the evangelicals didn't exactly reach back. So I think his support comes from those who don't really like anyone and have nowhere else to go. And I don't think those people will show up for the election in large numbers. In the end, McCain still has a chance because the only candidate who has any kind of broad appeal is Thompson. And he's run a campaign so dismal it makes Mondale's look like a major adrenaline rush. At this point, I'm starting to think that Newt Gingrich might win the nomination in a brokered convention. It doesn't look like any other Republican has a better chance. Well, maybe Romney. He has the advantage of having taken every position on every issue. So you probably agree with something he's said in his career no matter who you are. But then again, you disagree as well.
Democrats: Clinton first, Obama second, Edwards third.
Republicans: Romney first, McCain second, Huckabee third.
I wanted to say Guiliani third, but as quickly as people are realizing that Huchabee is completely insane, they realizing the exact same thing about Guiliani as well. I think our reader Dave is right, Rudi's doomed. I guess even the Republicans aren't that crazy.
Update: Okay, the monks have gone to bed and I can write more. I know I wrote in the comments that Guliani may not be dead, but I'm rethinking that. If he can't poll in the top three in New Hampshire in any poll, he's obviously lost any traction he had. I still think his "kill the Muslims" message plays well in many Republican constituencies, but those same people obviously don't like the rest of who he is. Otherwise, he'd be polling in the double digits.
There are two reasons I like Clinton in New Hampshire. First, she needs to win there or she's toast. She's dropping in the South carolina polls and isn't going to win there. There are primaries in Michigan and Nevada, but I can't find any polling on those. But I don't think she can win in those states, either. If she doesn't have a win before Super Teusday, I don't see how she ever catches Obama. So she will put a lot of effort into New Hampshire. The second reason is that Bill made a surprising showing in New Hampshire when he was running. So I think her team knows New Hampshire well and can do well there.
I also see that McCain actualy polls better than Romney in New Hampshire, but I think his support is thin. Nobody really likes him anymore. He's alienated his old followers by trying to reach out to the evangelicals. And the evangelicals didn't exactly reach back. So I think his support comes from those who don't really like anyone and have nowhere else to go. And I don't think those people will show up for the election in large numbers. In the end, McCain still has a chance because the only candidate who has any kind of broad appeal is Thompson. And he's run a campaign so dismal it makes Mondale's look like a major adrenaline rush. At this point, I'm starting to think that Newt Gingrich might win the nomination in a brokered convention. It doesn't look like any other Republican has a better chance. Well, maybe Romney. He has the advantage of having taken every position on every issue. So you probably agree with something he's said in his career no matter who you are. But then again, you disagree as well.
Friday, January 4, 2008
Nailed It!
Well, I nailed the Iowa prediction perfectly. I'll get back to everyone on the New Hampshire results. Maybe I should bet on this stuff. I'm sure better at elections than football.
Same Mistake Again
Well, I got a little sick again. And from the exact same meal. Tibetan Chow Mein seems to be my nemesis. It's the raw lettuce they mix in. It was hard to refuse when Tamding's parents were serving it. I drank strong beer with it, picled out all the lettuce, and hardly ate any of it. I still got mildly sick and missed the first part of the Dalai Lama's teaching today. And I was buzzed for the second half because I drank rum to try to kill off the food poisoning. I guess I should note that Tamding's mother did not cook the meal.
I had an ancient radio to try to get the English broadcast of his Holisness's teaching today. At first I couldn't get it to come in. So we moved around and things didn't really improve. Until I touched the antenna to a string of barbed wire that was surrounding the area. That got me great reception, which is pretty weird because it was FM, which is a high enough frequency that anything over a meter usually doesn't help. But the barbed wire almost completely surrounded the broadcast area, so maybe it was able to link me to a hotspot. Regardless, I got to hear the teaching, finally. I tried to find out what the teaching was, but nobody could give me an English translation. But it was supposedly written by the second Dalai Lama.
I had an ancient radio to try to get the English broadcast of his Holisness's teaching today. At first I couldn't get it to come in. So we moved around and things didn't really improve. Until I touched the antenna to a string of barbed wire that was surrounding the area. That got me great reception, which is pretty weird because it was FM, which is a high enough frequency that anything over a meter usually doesn't help. But the barbed wire almost completely surrounded the broadcast area, so maybe it was able to link me to a hotspot. Regardless, I got to hear the teaching, finally. I tried to find out what the teaching was, but nobody could give me an English translation. But it was supposedly written by the second Dalai Lama.
Thursday, January 3, 2008
In Mundgod Now
Well, I'm in Mundgod now. The rumors of free travel for foreigners are not true as far as I've heard from this end. This may become somewhat of a problem, as my documentation is a little sketchy. I have a letter that was scanned into pdf form and then reprinted. And the letter isn't exactly permission, either. It is an aknowledgement from the office of the Dalai Lama that My permission request is in order and in process. The office assures me that this is good enough to be here now. The problem is that the Dalai Lama's office doesn't police Mundgod (although they do have legal authority), the Indians do. And the primary function of the Indian police is to extract bribes from people. Tamding got harassed on the train yesterday by Goan Customs authorities for wine he'd bought for his parents. And he did have the proper documentation for bringing wine out of Goa. It took him about 15 minutes to talk his way out of having to bribe the cops for obeying the law. So, I'm not exactly confident that I won't have any problems with the police. If they have an opening, they will pressure you really hard for money. And what are you going to do? Call the cops?
So the roads on the way to Mungod were a little better than I'd remembered. It turns out that they just repaved the roads. Not that they were smooth- this is India remember. The Dalai Lama's visit is the original cause of the paving. Not that they'd pave the roads for His Holiness. What's really going on is that some of the local Ministers of Parliment are coming to see the Dalai Lama during his visit. Now these people had appropriated money for the paving of the roads and are no doubt expecting to actually see them paved. So, there was a mad scramble to pave roads that would otherwise have not been paved in order to create the illusion that appropriating money for the paving of roads results in the paving of roads. That way, more money will be approriated. In reality, roads that the MPs aren't likely to see don't actually get paved. So, His Holiness's visit is already having a positive effect on the region.
So the roads on the way to Mungod were a little better than I'd remembered. It turns out that they just repaved the roads. Not that they were smooth- this is India remember. The Dalai Lama's visit is the original cause of the paving. Not that they'd pave the roads for His Holiness. What's really going on is that some of the local Ministers of Parliment are coming to see the Dalai Lama during his visit. Now these people had appropriated money for the paving of the roads and are no doubt expecting to actually see them paved. So, there was a mad scramble to pave roads that would otherwise have not been paved in order to create the illusion that appropriating money for the paving of roads results in the paving of roads. That way, more money will be approriated. In reality, roads that the MPs aren't likely to see don't actually get paved. So, His Holiness's visit is already having a positive effect on the region.
Wednesday, January 2, 2008
Worse Than I Expected
Well, we made it to Hubli. I can say with absolute certainty that third class train travel is a bad idea in India. I wasn't expecting it to be pleasant. But I thought there might but some limit to how many tickets they would sell in third class. There isn't. Nor are refunds available if you can't get on. The only limit to the number of people on a third class coach is the available space. So, on a coach designed for 80 people, people will stop getting on when there are about 170 passengers.
We thought we were being smart by hetting on the train as soon as it stopped and fighting for two of the few individual seats. The train is laid out by compartments, with each one having two benches designed for four and two individual seats. The benches will be seating at least seven by the third stop, so individual seats seemed like a good idea. Of course the individual seats will be seating two by the third stop. It turns out that the best seats are up in the luggage racks. There's not much headroom, but at least you can move around a little bit. If I ever have to endure another third class ride in India, I'll fight for a luggage rack space.
Today, we will get a taxi to Mundgod, where we will stay for four days. It's another refugee camp, but this one requires special permission. It's not clear yet whether I will have it, but there are rumors that, for the next two weeks, it won't be needed. The reason is to make it easier for foreigners to hear the Dalai Lama's speeches. He actually gave the first one today, but we would have needed to get up by 5 AM to get there in time. After that train ride, I wasn't in the mood for getting up early. But there is a speech tomorrow, and there will apparently be a radio broadcast with a simultaneous English translation. It should be interesting. Actually, I don't feel so bad about missing the first speech. There's a Tibetan monk sitting at the computer next to me. I guess he missed it, too.
We thought we were being smart by hetting on the train as soon as it stopped and fighting for two of the few individual seats. The train is laid out by compartments, with each one having two benches designed for four and two individual seats. The benches will be seating at least seven by the third stop, so individual seats seemed like a good idea. Of course the individual seats will be seating two by the third stop. It turns out that the best seats are up in the luggage racks. There's not much headroom, but at least you can move around a little bit. If I ever have to endure another third class ride in India, I'll fight for a luggage rack space.
Today, we will get a taxi to Mundgod, where we will stay for four days. It's another refugee camp, but this one requires special permission. It's not clear yet whether I will have it, but there are rumors that, for the next two weeks, it won't be needed. The reason is to make it easier for foreigners to hear the Dalai Lama's speeches. He actually gave the first one today, but we would have needed to get up by 5 AM to get there in time. After that train ride, I wasn't in the mood for getting up early. But there is a speech tomorrow, and there will apparently be a radio broadcast with a simultaneous English translation. It should be interesting. Actually, I don't feel so bad about missing the first speech. There's a Tibetan monk sitting at the computer next to me. I guess he missed it, too.
Tuesday, January 1, 2008
Uninformed Iowa Predictions
I haven't really been following the election very closely. That may be a good thing, as the mainstream media has been really bad at predicting the Iowa Caucus. In the last one, Howard Dean was supposed to be the frontrunner and the media was wondering why John Kerry was didn't even stand a chance. So being uninformed, I may have an edge. Here's my predictions:
Democrats: Obama first, Edwards second, Clinton third
Republicans: Huckabee first, Romney second, Thompson third
In the long run, Hillary will do better, but maybe not good enough. Huckabee will crash and burn as people realize just how crazy he really is. Who will gain from Huckabee's fall is really a toss up. It's really the weakest Republican field I've ever seen.
Democrats: Obama first, Edwards second, Clinton third
Republicans: Huckabee first, Romney second, Thompson third
In the long run, Hillary will do better, but maybe not good enough. Huckabee will crash and burn as people realize just how crazy he really is. Who will gain from Huckabee's fall is really a toss up. It's really the weakest Republican field I've ever seen.
Leaving Goa
We're leaving Goa today. It's been nice. We plan to go to Hubli tonight, and then go to Mundgod tomorrow. We don't have a confirmed train ticket, but Tamding is sure we can get third class seats. It won't be pleasant, but at least it's only seven hours. I'm not really sure about my legal status in Mundgod, either. I was supposed to get a letter (in pdf form) saying I had applied for permission to enter Mundgod, but that letter never came. So my being there may require some bribes. The god news is that there will already be many Westerners there, so I won't stand out that much. The Dalai Lama arrives there today to dedicate a new temple. That is why there will be an unusual number of Westerners. Anyway, we'll see what happens.
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