Michigan and Florida

No, the Democratic primary campaign is not over. But it will be soon. Hopefully. But Saturday is a big day. There's more delegates at stake than in the remaining three primaries. Get ready, because it's the Democratic National Committee's Rules and Bylaws Committee meeting! Normally, a meeting like this would be a good place to read a book in peace, but not this year. There will be protests organized by Hillary, but I'm sure the real fireworks will happen inside. But that's all it will be: fireworks. Even if Hillary gets all she wants, she'll still be far behind. The committee is made up of 30 members, with 13 committed to Hillary and 8 committed to Obama. Hillary's got the edge, but she's asking for some pretty ridiculous things and she needs 3 of the 9 uncommitted members to go along. I don't think that will happen. Obama has been reluctant to say what he would like to do with the delegates. Away from the cameras, he would probably say that neither delegation should be seated at all. Those were the rules, but they will be changed in an unsuccessful effort to appease Hillary. I'm all for sticking to the rules, but it's not going to happen. The Democrats should have adopted the Republican plan for these two states (cut the delegation in half, but hold the election anyway.) Here are the possible outcomes for both states:

Hillary Plan: All delegates are seated as they went in the election.
Half Hillary Plan: All delegates are seated, but get 1/2 a vote.
Half District Plan: The delegation is cut in half and delegates are reassigned by district.
50/50 Plan: Delegates are split evenly.
Half 50/50 Plan: The delegation is reduced by half, and then divided evenly.
Obama Plan: The rules stay the same and no delegates are seated.

So what happens?

Florida: Both candidates were on the ballot, and I think Hillary can get three votes of the nine uncommitted for the Half Hillary Plan. It might seem that the Half Hillary Plan and the Half District Plan would produce the same result, but this is America, and electoral counts never make sense here. Chuck Todd explains why (but with no permalink) and FiveThirtyEight agrees (again, without a permalink). But as FiveThirtyEight notes, the effect goes a little bit the other way for Michigan. But the Half Hillary Plan gives Hillary a few more delegates between the two states, she'll push for that one. The Half Hillary Plan also means that more party loyalists get to go to Denver, so it will win. The full Hillary Plan is pretty much out of the question. The consensus seems to be that it's illegal under DNC rules. And it has all the fairness of one of Papa Doc's elections in Haiti.

Michigan: Michigan is different because Obama wasn't on the ballot. There are two ways to look at it when it comes to the Hillary plans: Give Obama zero delegates or give him the "uncommitted" delegates. Neither is fair, and the latter is probably illegal (but somewhat fair, given that Obama encouraged his supporters to vote uncommitted). The Hillary camp argues that the uncommitted should be seated as uncommitted. But she made a special effort at the Michigan Democratic Convention to select those particular "uncommitted" delegates, so she'd end up with even more delegates than when she ran unopposed (basically). I think we'll see either the Half Hillary Plan with Obama being awarded the "uncommitted" or the Half 50/50 plan. I'll take the Half Hillary Plan with a side of Obamized Uncommitteds.

FiveThirtyEight did an analysis that showed that Obama actually would have won the state by a hair, but I'm somewhat skeptical. They've been pretty damn good so far using an unconventional polling/ demographics model. Their Michigan model uses comparisons of election results from demographically similar districts in neighboring states. That's not a problem in itself; in fact I think their methodology is basically sound. The problem is that those elections in neighboring states were held later in the season, when Obama had better name recognition. He would have been a weaker candidate when the Michigan and Florida elections were held. Nonetheless, I'd agree that the Half 50/50 plan has merit. Without both candidates on the ballot, it's impossible to judge the results. There's news that the committee is considering the Half 50/50 Plan for Michigan. But I'm not buying it. The Half Hillary Plan is more easily done across both states, so it would be easier to justify for everyone. But I doubt three of the committee's uncommitted would go for it without Obama getting those "uncommitted" delegates from Michigan.

So What's the Bottom Line? Hillary nets 27 delegates on Saturday.

Caveat: Hillary can appeal these decisions to the Credentials Committee or take it to the convention floor. Only Hillary can really stop this. And recently, she hasn't really been one to listen to reason. But Pelosi and Reid are asking the remaining uncommitted superdelegates to make a decision next week (after all the primaries are FINALLY over). Many of those superdelegates have bills and amendments that they'd like to get through their respective legislatures. Pelosi and Reid can do much to affect the passage of such bills and amendments. In theory, they could pull some serious weight on the matter, but this is the Democrats we're talking about.

Update: Poblano at FiveThirtyEight reveals his identity.

Update II: Apparently, Clinton may not have those 13 committed members on the committe.