Slacking

Haven't posted in a while. It's not that I don't have ideas. It's just that I feel like I feel like those ideas have to be good for them to be posted. And those ideas should be expressed in a reasonable manner. What's happened this week so infuriates me that it's difficult to be reasonable. Offshore drilling, Obama's cave on FISA, the usual right wing Christian craziness, etc. I guess the thing I find about blogging is that I'm much more hesitant to express my feelings than I would be just commenting on someone else's blog*. Part of it is that is is easier to react than create. But the bigger issue is that things I write in the main post are really mine. And I'm afraid to own something that is really stupid. Not that I haven't written stupid things here, I just don't want to do it knowingly. I also want to avoid issues that are already beaten to death. Offshore drilling is such an issue. If you haven't already read several dozen tirades against the plan, you haven't been reading. So, in the interest of providing something new, here's this and this. The first is about a katoey in Thailand and the second is about animals taking over airport runways in India. Both are from Asia Times, and neither are even remotely surprising. I've decided that I should make an effort to provide weird stories from India and Thailand because, let's face it, the weirdest stories usually come from those two countries . But I don't do this to denigrate either country, I do it to reveal the very real differences in attitude that exist in the world.

*Here's an example of a recent comment on gay issues:

"John, you raise a good point that is probably lost on most people outside of Thailand. I personally don't care much about the marriage issue, but I do support anyone's marriage rights and vote that way. I was born heterosexual and no amount of social pressure would ever change that. But I have no problem having drinks with the katoey in Bangkok- but just drinks, thank you. While I'd agree that sexuality is a continuous spectrum, I'm pretty far to one side. And I'm comfortable with that. And that's precisely why I enjoy the company of anyone who's anywhere on the spectrum. It just doesn't matter to me because I'm comfortable with myself. It's when people are acting in way that is inconsistent with their placement on the spectrum that problems arise. And based on the number of gay Republicans espousing anti-gay rhetoric, it's pretty clear that the failure to accept one's placement on the spectrum creates serious emotional conflicts. In the end, The Closet is the most emotionally destructive force in sexuality. We need to create a society where nobody feels the need to be in The Closet. And that needs to include the transvestites, transgendered, and transexuals as well. Thailand does it pretty well. So can we."

As you can see, it's longer than many of my posts. I think it's time to stop worrying about what I write, and just write. It's easier that way.

Tim Russert

Shocking news. I guess it's another reminder that we never really know when the end will be. I generally liked Tim as an interviewer. His toughness sometimes slipped into gotcha questions, but not too often. And he generally stuck to substantive questions. Overall, I'd say he was one of the better journalists on television. He will be missed.

Why is Sysia Talking?

Gulf News has a good answer. It turns out that they need Western investment. So why is Israel talking? Well, Olmert is in legal trouble again, so he might want to deflect attention from that. And doing something the liberals (his main enemies) might like is a good start. But I probably shouldn't be so cynical. Olmert sees an opportunity. The Syrians know they would be better off distancing themselves from Iran and Hezbollah. And they want to become closer to the West and the Arab world for financial reasons. Israel would like to encourage that transition. But if they bomb Syria, they'll prevent that transition. If they talk, they'll encourage it. So they're talking, even though they would probably prefer bombing. I'm still somewhat skeptical about the negotiations, but both sides seem to be operating in a rational fashion, so there's hope. In the end, peace is the only rational option. Maybe the two sides will get there.

Update: Gershom says that elections might be coming. You'll need to click his link to get to the full article. I link to him because his intro is great. Money quote:

"Here we have an election whenever the humidity, the soccer results, the stock market and the mood in the State Prosecutor’s Office line up in a formula known only to several deceased alchemists."

Now that's Jewish humor.

Not the Best Backround

I don't have a problem with either green or Jello. But "Good for Dentures"? I'm sure it speaks to McCain's base, but maybe that doesn't send the right message to those of us under 60. I remember a time (all of my life, actually) when Republicans were really good at message control. What happened? (hat tip: DailyKos)

I guess I should add that my roommate and I were just talking about how press photographers have been putting out some rather unflattering photos of politicians in recent years and how that wasn't the case when we were young. Yes, photos came out of Lyndon Johnson putting the fear of death into other politicians when he talked to them (yelled at, actually). But Johnson liked those pictures and the persona they conveyed. He wanted people to be scared before they even entered the Oval Office.

Things to Think About

Science catches up to the Fiction: Levitation, and I'm not kidding. I would caution that many medical studies should be done before we build our levitating cars. But Luke's desert speeder seems in grasp. Reversing the Casimir force is something I wouldn't have guessed. Not so much that it couldn't be done, but that it could be done over such distances.

Secret Meetings: Obama took Lieberman into a corner in the Senate and gave him a stern talking to. It wasn't quite the "Johnson treatment", but the accounts imply that Obama might have had some LBJ in him. Good for him. And apparently Harry Reid had a little 'talk' too. Old Joe might be getting the boot if the Dems have the votes. Harry Reid defends Joe, of course, but that could change. Oh, and Obama and Hillary had a meeting. Unfortunately, we have no details. Oh to be a fly on the wall...

Bollywood in Bangkok: The International Indian Film Academy is having it's awards in Bangkok. Most people in the world cannot really appreciate how strange that is. In general, the Indian and Thai cultures are very different. If you think either of those cultures is weird, you should understand that they seem far weirder to each other . Indians do go to Bangkok in fairly large numbers, but they tend to keep to themselves when there. Most Indians can't eat at any Thai restaurant for dietary reasons. And the Thai like them even less than anyone else who's visiting. And, trust me, the Thai don't really like anyone who's not Thai. And they certainly don't watch Bollywood movies. Trying to sell Bollywood in Bangkok is like trying to sell skin whitener in Iceland. The Thai have their own really weird movies, thank you.

Clear enough?

Here's the DNC's contribution page. Hillary should visit it. I like the "Thank You Hillary" part. We do thank you. BUT IT"S TIME TO LEAVE. There's work in the Senate, DO IT.

Update: Okay, she's leaving. And even Taylor Marsh is calling for unity (sort of- but what can you expect?). The general Election begins....

Montana and South Dakota

Finally! The last primaries. The consensus seems to be that Obama wins both of them. But recent South Dakota polls show otherwise. Obama will win Montana by 10 points, and Clinton will win South Dakota by 2 points. Obama currently needs 40 delegates and will win 17 pledged delegates tonight. He'll also pick up 5 superdelegates from Montana, as they have pledged themselves to the winner of the state. He'll need 18 superdelegates to commit today if we wants to declare himself the winner tonight. I think he'll get them by the time he speaks tonight. He'll make that point subtly clear tonight. Hillary will wake up tomorrow with only a floor fight at the convention to give her hope. But it's pretty clear she'll lose that fight. She should concede on Wednesday, but she may just suspend her campaign. A suspension makes it easier for her to continue raising money while not spending any of it. But I don't think she'll be able to raise a whole lot of money. She'll raise the kind of money a Senate candidate might raise, not the kind a Presidential candidate would. But that might get her close to being out of debt.

Update: FiveThirtyEight has Obama winning by 18 in Montana and 5 in South Dakota. They've been pretty accurate so far with their combined demographics and polling model. Given the sparsity of polls for the states, they should do a lot better than the traditional polling methods. So it may not be wise to go against their predictions. I'm still sticking with my prediction, however. The reason is that Hillary's supporters are desperate now and will turn out in full force. Obama's supporters already know he's going to win the nomination, so they'll stay home in droves. If Hillary had a realistic chance, I'd go with FiveThirtyEight's predictions, but she doesn't.