Critical Wyoming Caucus

You may not know about it, but there's a caucus in Wyoming! Yeah, yeah, how important could that be? Well, with twelve delegates at stake, it's entirely possible that Obama could net as many delegates in Wyoming than Hillary did on Tuesday. She only came out ahead four delegates, so if Obama gets a 8-4 split, he wipes out all of Hillary's gains. So Wyoming could prove to be more important than Ohio, Texas, Connecticut, and Vermont combined. I'm predicting a comfortable win for Obama and a net 3 delegates.

It won't really change the "momentum" granted by the media, but momentum is bullshit. The fact is that some states are better for some candidates than others. And like any randomly generated system, the strong states for any candidate are not evenly distributed, but often come in clusters. Obama had "momentum" when his strong states came in a cluster. Then Hillary had "momentum" when her strong states came in a cluster. In the end, it's a race that's too close to be determined by the voters. Ultimately, the superdelegates will decide the election. If Clinton were to end up ahead in the pledged delegate count, I suspect Obama would probably concede in the interest of unity. But that won't happen. Instead, Obama will end up ahead in the pledged delegates and Hillary won't even think about giving up until she's mathematically eliminated, which won't occur until the convention.

Some people admire Clinton for her tenacity, but I don't. She just takes it too far. She is far more willing to destroy the party than she is to lose. And she may end up doing both if the convention gets nasty. I don't mind an extended race or even a brokered convention. But it really pisses me off that she is willing to sacrifice the general election to ensure that she's the nominee. What's sad about this is that I liked Hillary at the beginning of the campaign and felt she was being unfairly attacked. Through her actions in this campaign, I am now convinced of the opposite. Now I think she's Vladimir Putin in a pantsuit. I really don't want to vote for her, and I know I'm not alone. Sadly, the alternative is a man who will surely start the next world war. One can only hope he puts some bleachers in the sun and has it on Highway 61.

Update: With more than 7500 votes cast, Obama wins 61-38. This leads us to the obvious question: There are 7500 Democrats in Wyoming? Apparently so. I would never have believed it. Obama picks up two delegates from the contest. Which makes me ask the question: Why did I choose an odd number of delegates for Obama to net in a race where an even number of delegates were at play? I'm actually pretty good at math, so I'm a little embarrassed by making such an obvious mathematical blunder. But it turns out that the wacky Democratic rules have saved me. Wyoming will be granted one "add-on" delegate, which is awarded to the winner of the state by Wyoming rules. So Obama really did pick up 3 delegates, it's just that the third add-on delegate does not get officially awarded until the convention. I'm a little new to the add-on delegates and how they are doled out. When I know more, I'll explain them in detail. They could turn out to have as much influence as the superdelegates.

Also, there was a special election in Illinois' 14th district for Hastert's old seat. Democrat Bill Foster (no relation, probably) won comfortably. So the Dems picked up a House seat. Of course, they'll have to win it again in November, but now Foster runs as an incumbent. I wasn't even going to mention this race, but it turns out that Foster is a physicist. American politics is chock full of economists and lawyers, but it has a severe shortage of people who actually understand science. Bill Foster is a much needed addition to Congress. Given the technological challenges the world faces today, we certainly need more politicians like Bill Foster. And we need far fewer politicians who pander to the likes and John Hagee and Tim LaHaye. (That's you, St. John)