Being lazy, I'm going to reproduce a comment I made on another website. You can read the full context here. I have a problem with Geert Wilder's new film 'Fitna' condemning Islam. Everytime I find a new link to the film, it gets cut off, so I can't offer you a link. But it's probably the most offensive thing I've ever seen. Islam most surely has it's problems and I should do a post about that, but taking random quotes out of context from the Quran and claiming that it means that all Muslims are evil is inflammatory at best. Nevertheless, I support Mr. Wilder's right to have his say. Unfortunately, not everyone agrees. But I do get to have my say, but I'll warn people that I condemn violence regardless of who it's committed by. And no religion gets a pass, not even my own. Although Judaism only gets condemned by inference. So anyone who wants to accuse me of anti-semitism, understand that they got treated better than everyone else (and on purpose). But it's not the Likud line, so I guess I'm evil. As for it being anti-Christian, well, I think the actions of Christians in the past are not consistent with the message of Jesus. But they are consistent with the message of the Book of Revelations (and Joshua). Christians should decide which side they're on. I'm with Jesus, but I'm not a Christian, so it doesn't matter. I'll add that I don't believe that any religion needs to tear out pages of their respective texts (unlike Wilder, who is adamant about HIS right to free speech, but not anyone else's) . Here it is (with some spelling corrections):
If you think that’s violent, read the Book of Joshua. A clearer endorsement of genocide cannot be found. And when we look at history, it’s clear that the Christians took the message of genocide to heart. Here in America, the Christian colonists not only acted out the message, but upscaled it Cecil B. DeMille style.
Before Mr. Wilders asks Muslims to tear out the offending passages of the Quran, he should tear the Book of Joshua out of his Bible. And he shouldn’t stop there. The Book of Revelations is even worse (and considered to be a war plan by many Christians, most notably John Hagee). And there are passages in Exodus (also repeated in the Quran) that really should go too, like the actions of the Sons of Levi, which are an obvious endorsement of genocide against Hindus.
Look, if the Muslims had any real power, I might be worried, but they don’t. The Christians have long been the dominant military force on the planet. Just look at a map of the world in 1916. The Christians controlled the entire world except for Japan, Thailand, Iran, and Turkey (Ottoman Empire, sort of). Their domination was very nearly complete. And these people want to recreate the story of the Book of Revelations.
I’m neither a Christian (who’d have guessed?) or a Muslim. And the Muslims have always treated my religion far worse than they ever treated the Christians (unless you consider higher taxes to be a fate worse than death, which those of my religion received). So I have every reason to be concerned about Islam. But the Book of Revelations promises me an equally horrible fate, and those who believe it are far more powerful and dangerous than the Muslims will ever be.
This is why McCain’s desire to have John Hagee’s endorsement bothers me so much. He could be given the military might to carry out the Book of Revelations and seems to agree with Hagee that it should be carried out.
A few months ago, I saw the most powerful speech of my life. It was the Dalai Lama’s warm-up act for the dedication of the new Drepung Loseling monastery in Mundgod, India. And it was given by the Hindu guru Sri Sri Ravi Shankar. The speech was about the need to confront religious extremism and ‘communalism’ everywhere it exists and regardless of which religion it comes from. It was made all the more powerful by the Dalai Lama’s presence behind him. The religions of the world can come together. But it won’t happen until we confront the extremists within our own ranks. Surely Islam needs to do this, but Christianity needs to do it as well. Even my religion, Buddhism, needs to do it, as evidenced by the appalling behavior of some of the rioters in Lhasa. To his credit, the Dalai Lama did condemn the violence, just as Sri Sri Ravi Shankar condemns the violence committed against Muslims by his fellow Hindus. Unfortunately, the Abrahamic religions seem caught up in Old Testament hatred, which blinds them to their misdeeds.
Saturday, March 29, 2008
Thursday, March 27, 2008
More Random Thoughts
I'm still working too much. But I'll post anyway. But it will be mostly links.
First, here's a good rundown on the Shia factions in Iraq. One can only hope that McCain will read it and learn something. There's a real danger he may be president, so it would be nice if he became informed on Iraq. I haven't seen a similar rundown for the Sunni and Kurdish factions. But I don't really think anyone has a good handle on the Sunnis. Most especially our government.
Speaking of Iraq, this and this are some pretty good explanations of what's going on in Basra. You'll note that they aren't really in agreement, but that's because it's not really clear what's going on. I doubt the actual participants even know. But I think everyone would agree that it's not good. Except for the Bush administration, of course. They think that more violence is a positive development. Really.
And then there is this. If there's a worse example of the incompetence of this administration, I don't even want to hear about it. They actually gave a 22 year old kid $300 million in defense contracts, which he promptly screwed up. No doubt he'll receive the Presidential Medal of Freedom for his efforts. That seems to be the standard punishment for incompetence.
Oh, and McCain says he hates war. The media, of course, will ignore the fact that he's never opposed a war in his life and has consistently criticized our wars for being insufficiently violent. And they will take him at his word. He's a mavericky Straight Talker, after all. Apparently throughout history, we have all been using the wrong definition for "hate." It really means "strongly support." Good thing St. John is around to set us straight.
And it seems that I actually have more than two readers. I guess I'll have to step it up.
Update: A rice shortage in Thailand? Probably not. Thailand, despite chronic political instability, is a fairly well managed country. As the article suggests, Thailand will likely avert a crisis. But the worldwide rice shortage is for real. On a positive note, rice farmers should make some pretty good money this year. Maybe the rice farmers of Laos will be able to afford schooling for their children. And maybe we can stop subsidizing the rice farmers in our country. Oh, silly me, those farmers are Republicans who 'deserve' a socialist safety net just like Wall Street, unlike their counterparts in communist Laos who operate under capitalism. Go figure.
Schadenfreude Update: Slate brings us the Hillary Deathwatch. Synopsis: She doesn't know how dead she is.
First, here's a good rundown on the Shia factions in Iraq. One can only hope that McCain will read it and learn something. There's a real danger he may be president, so it would be nice if he became informed on Iraq. I haven't seen a similar rundown for the Sunni and Kurdish factions. But I don't really think anyone has a good handle on the Sunnis. Most especially our government.
Speaking of Iraq, this and this are some pretty good explanations of what's going on in Basra. You'll note that they aren't really in agreement, but that's because it's not really clear what's going on. I doubt the actual participants even know. But I think everyone would agree that it's not good. Except for the Bush administration, of course. They think that more violence is a positive development. Really.
And then there is this. If there's a worse example of the incompetence of this administration, I don't even want to hear about it. They actually gave a 22 year old kid $300 million in defense contracts, which he promptly screwed up. No doubt he'll receive the Presidential Medal of Freedom for his efforts. That seems to be the standard punishment for incompetence.
Oh, and McCain says he hates war. The media, of course, will ignore the fact that he's never opposed a war in his life and has consistently criticized our wars for being insufficiently violent. And they will take him at his word. He's a mavericky Straight Talker, after all. Apparently throughout history, we have all been using the wrong definition for "hate." It really means "strongly support." Good thing St. John is around to set us straight.
And it seems that I actually have more than two readers. I guess I'll have to step it up.
Update: A rice shortage in Thailand? Probably not. Thailand, despite chronic political instability, is a fairly well managed country. As the article suggests, Thailand will likely avert a crisis. But the worldwide rice shortage is for real. On a positive note, rice farmers should make some pretty good money this year. Maybe the rice farmers of Laos will be able to afford schooling for their children. And maybe we can stop subsidizing the rice farmers in our country. Oh, silly me, those farmers are Republicans who 'deserve' a socialist safety net just like Wall Street, unlike their counterparts in communist Laos who operate under capitalism. Go figure.
Schadenfreude Update: Slate brings us the Hillary Deathwatch. Synopsis: She doesn't know how dead she is.
Monday, March 24, 2008
Building Stonehenge By Yourself?
I'm not quite sure how to embed a YouTube. But Here's a link:
Moving Big Stones
I've always been fascinated by ancient technology. In my travels, I've seen stunning structures that were built without cranes, pulleys, or engines. I've always noticed how engineers of those days found creative solutions in construction technology. But this guy really takes the cake. He raises a very large slab of concrete by himself with very minimal effort. His secret: gravity. I think the coolest part is how he raised the slab to it's horizontal position. Brilliant and simple.
Moving Big Stones
I've always been fascinated by ancient technology. In my travels, I've seen stunning structures that were built without cranes, pulleys, or engines. I've always noticed how engineers of those days found creative solutions in construction technology. But this guy really takes the cake. He raises a very large slab of concrete by himself with very minimal effort. His secret: gravity. I think the coolest part is how he raised the slab to it's horizontal position. Brilliant and simple.
Friday, March 21, 2008
Random Stuff
The thing about blogging is that you actually have to write from time to time. And I've been a slacker because I have to work. I think both of my readers have given up anyway, so maybe it's not a problem.
On the campaign, it looks like there will be no revotes. People will still circulate plans for revotes, but they won't happen. That said, here's Dave Barry's Plan.
On Tibet, I don't have time to do it justice.
And I added a new link: South Jerusalem. It's a different perspective than we usually get about Israel. And it's actually written by Israelis. And they are actually real journalists. I've found it interesting.
On the campaign, it looks like there will be no revotes. People will still circulate plans for revotes, but they won't happen. That said, here's Dave Barry's Plan.
On Tibet, I don't have time to do it justice.
And I added a new link: South Jerusalem. It's a different perspective than we usually get about Israel. And it's actually written by Israelis. And they are actually real journalists. I've found it interesting.
Sunday, March 16, 2008
Continuing Election Coverage
There aren't any elections or caucuses for more than a month, so not much should be going on. But the bizarre nature of our nominating process means things are always happening. Over the weekend, Obama picked up a net 10 delegates in Iowa. This is mostly due to Edwards delegates switching to Obama, but Hillary actually lost a delegate. Because the caucuses are multi-layered, the delegate count can shift like this. Regardless, Obama picked up more delegates over the weekend than Clinton did in her Super Awesome Ultra Critical Blowout Win in Ohio. But, of course, Iowa doesn't count. But superdelegates do, and Obama picked up a few dozen of those in the past two weeks. Hillary lost a few. They are roughly tied now on superdelegates.
Obama is taking some heat for his pastor, Jeremiah wright. It's probably a good thing this came out now rather than later. In the long run, I think it'll blow over. The American electorate's capacity to forget knows few bounds. Obama has responded pretty well to the controversy and, unlike McCain, has actually rejected the offensive statements. Granted, it would probably take McCain months to reject all of Hagee's offensive statements, but he could start with some of the more egregious ones. I'd like to hear him just say that trying to bring about Armageddon might not be such a great idea. Is that really so hard to do? Apparently so.
And then there's Florida in Michigan. It doesn't look like there will be a revote in Florida. Obama would be smart to just concede the original Florida results and move on. Hillary won't get enough delegates to make a real difference, but resolving the issue would get her to shut up about it. Michigan is another story because Obama wasn't even on the ballot. But they look like they will schedule another election, which will be so close that it will only amount to a delegate or two either way. But, again, it will get Hillary to shut up about it. Obama will still be ahead by a solid margin even if Hillary were to get the original delegates from Michigan. I really don't see a plausible way for her to win. The only thing she can do is maintain uncertainty about the election. Resolving Michigan and Florida quickly will take away a lot of that uncertainty and take away her only justification for being in the race. Of course, Hillary will have to be dragged, kicking and screaming, from the race. Having no reason to continue will not be enough for her.
And then there's a little trouble in Tibet. I'll write more when I get better information from my Tibetan friends. My first take is that the Tibetans want to keep the issue in the news until the Olympics. But I don't think they were expecting this level of violence. And China is learning that it has less control over the media than it would like.
In lighter news, the chief of police for Tehran was caught naked in a brothel with six prostitutes (also naked). Given that he's in charge of enforcing Iran's moral codes, it's more than a little embarrassing. But hardly surprising. It seems nearly every self-righteous moralizer is hiding some nefarious behavior. At least he got caught in style. Although for logistical reasons, I question the need for six prostitutes. Three should be enough.
Tibet Update: Well, it seems China is controlling the media a little better than I had expected. Obviously, they can do nothing about information that leaves their borders and such information is certainly getting out. But they have clearly learned a new technique: Spin. Rather than shut down all information (no longer possible), they are putting it out with masterful spin. And the Chinese seem to be buying it. Also, here's the best take I've read so far on the issue:
China's Only Path
Obama is taking some heat for his pastor, Jeremiah wright. It's probably a good thing this came out now rather than later. In the long run, I think it'll blow over. The American electorate's capacity to forget knows few bounds. Obama has responded pretty well to the controversy and, unlike McCain, has actually rejected the offensive statements. Granted, it would probably take McCain months to reject all of Hagee's offensive statements, but he could start with some of the more egregious ones. I'd like to hear him just say that trying to bring about Armageddon might not be such a great idea. Is that really so hard to do? Apparently so.
And then there's Florida in Michigan. It doesn't look like there will be a revote in Florida. Obama would be smart to just concede the original Florida results and move on. Hillary won't get enough delegates to make a real difference, but resolving the issue would get her to shut up about it. Michigan is another story because Obama wasn't even on the ballot. But they look like they will schedule another election, which will be so close that it will only amount to a delegate or two either way. But, again, it will get Hillary to shut up about it. Obama will still be ahead by a solid margin even if Hillary were to get the original delegates from Michigan. I really don't see a plausible way for her to win. The only thing she can do is maintain uncertainty about the election. Resolving Michigan and Florida quickly will take away a lot of that uncertainty and take away her only justification for being in the race. Of course, Hillary will have to be dragged, kicking and screaming, from the race. Having no reason to continue will not be enough for her.
And then there's a little trouble in Tibet. I'll write more when I get better information from my Tibetan friends. My first take is that the Tibetans want to keep the issue in the news until the Olympics. But I don't think they were expecting this level of violence. And China is learning that it has less control over the media than it would like.
In lighter news, the chief of police for Tehran was caught naked in a brothel with six prostitutes (also naked). Given that he's in charge of enforcing Iran's moral codes, it's more than a little embarrassing. But hardly surprising. It seems nearly every self-righteous moralizer is hiding some nefarious behavior. At least he got caught in style. Although for logistical reasons, I question the need for six prostitutes. Three should be enough.
Tibet Update: Well, it seems China is controlling the media a little better than I had expected. Obviously, they can do nothing about information that leaves their borders and such information is certainly getting out. But they have clearly learned a new technique: Spin. Rather than shut down all information (no longer possible), they are putting it out with masterful spin. And the Chinese seem to be buying it. Also, here's the best take I've read so far on the issue:
China's Only Path
Tuesday, March 11, 2008
Mississippi
There's a primary today in Mississippi. Obama will win in a landslide. It turns out the Hillary got a net six delegates in her "big win" on Tuesday. Obama's win today will easily wipe out Hillary's gains. But, alas, Mississippi "doesn't count."
Update: Okay, they called for Obama with no precincts reporting. How do they do that? I guess it's based on exit polls, but I've felt that maybe they should count a vote or two before making that judgment. Admittedly, I've never seen such a prediction be wrong, so maybe I'm overreacting.
Also, there have been some adjustments to some of the delegates. Obama picked up two delegates on the final certification in California, and he's now expected to get another two Ohio. In Colorado, Hillary may gain a delegate or two because the delegate ratio seems to have shifted in the county conventions. Don't ask me more about that story, it's really below-the-radar right now and it's hard to get credible information. Some Obama supporters are claiming nefarious activities, but I remain skeptical. It could just be a simple twist of math.
But that brings up an important aspect of American elections. They make no sense at all, and take weeks or months to ultimately get resolved. Elections in India are easier to understand, and they're reported in some weird language like Hindi or Gujarat. Most countries in the world can count each vote, and give the election the the person who got the most votes. It's really not that hard. Why can't we do that? Yeah, I know, we'd have to change the Constitution. Damn!
Update: Okay, they called for Obama with no precincts reporting. How do they do that? I guess it's based on exit polls, but I've felt that maybe they should count a vote or two before making that judgment. Admittedly, I've never seen such a prediction be wrong, so maybe I'm overreacting.
Also, there have been some adjustments to some of the delegates. Obama picked up two delegates on the final certification in California, and he's now expected to get another two Ohio. In Colorado, Hillary may gain a delegate or two because the delegate ratio seems to have shifted in the county conventions. Don't ask me more about that story, it's really below-the-radar right now and it's hard to get credible information. Some Obama supporters are claiming nefarious activities, but I remain skeptical. It could just be a simple twist of math.
But that brings up an important aspect of American elections. They make no sense at all, and take weeks or months to ultimately get resolved. Elections in India are easier to understand, and they're reported in some weird language like Hindi or Gujarat. Most countries in the world can count each vote, and give the election the the person who got the most votes. It's really not that hard. Why can't we do that? Yeah, I know, we'd have to change the Constitution. Damn!
Friday, March 7, 2008
Critical Wyoming Caucus
You may not know about it, but there's a caucus in Wyoming! Yeah, yeah, how important could that be? Well, with twelve delegates at stake, it's entirely possible that Obama could net as many delegates in Wyoming than Hillary did on Tuesday. She only came out ahead four delegates, so if Obama gets a 8-4 split, he wipes out all of Hillary's gains. So Wyoming could prove to be more important than Ohio, Texas, Connecticut, and Vermont combined. I'm predicting a comfortable win for Obama and a net 3 delegates.
It won't really change the "momentum" granted by the media, but momentum is bullshit. The fact is that some states are better for some candidates than others. And like any randomly generated system, the strong states for any candidate are not evenly distributed, but often come in clusters. Obama had "momentum" when his strong states came in a cluster. Then Hillary had "momentum" when her strong states came in a cluster. In the end, it's a race that's too close to be determined by the voters. Ultimately, the superdelegates will decide the election. If Clinton were to end up ahead in the pledged delegate count, I suspect Obama would probably concede in the interest of unity. But that won't happen. Instead, Obama will end up ahead in the pledged delegates and Hillary won't even think about giving up until she's mathematically eliminated, which won't occur until the convention.
Some people admire Clinton for her tenacity, but I don't. She just takes it too far. She is far more willing to destroy the party than she is to lose. And she may end up doing both if the convention gets nasty. I don't mind an extended race or even a brokered convention. But it really pisses me off that she is willing to sacrifice the general election to ensure that she's the nominee. What's sad about this is that I liked Hillary at the beginning of the campaign and felt she was being unfairly attacked. Through her actions in this campaign, I am now convinced of the opposite. Now I think she's Vladimir Putin in a pantsuit. I really don't want to vote for her, and I know I'm not alone. Sadly, the alternative is a man who will surely start the next world war. One can only hope he puts some bleachers in the sun and has it on Highway 61.
Update: With more than 7500 votes cast, Obama wins 61-38. This leads us to the obvious question: There are 7500 Democrats in Wyoming? Apparently so. I would never have believed it. Obama picks up two delegates from the contest. Which makes me ask the question: Why did I choose an odd number of delegates for Obama to net in a race where an even number of delegates were at play? I'm actually pretty good at math, so I'm a little embarrassed by making such an obvious mathematical blunder. But it turns out that the wacky Democratic rules have saved me. Wyoming will be granted one "add-on" delegate, which is awarded to the winner of the state by Wyoming rules. So Obama really did pick up 3 delegates, it's just that the third add-on delegate does not get officially awarded until the convention. I'm a little new to the add-on delegates and how they are doled out. When I know more, I'll explain them in detail. They could turn out to have as much influence as the superdelegates.
Also, there was a special election in Illinois' 14th district for Hastert's old seat. Democrat Bill Foster (no relation, probably) won comfortably. So the Dems picked up a House seat. Of course, they'll have to win it again in November, but now Foster runs as an incumbent. I wasn't even going to mention this race, but it turns out that Foster is a physicist. American politics is chock full of economists and lawyers, but it has a severe shortage of people who actually understand science. Bill Foster is a much needed addition to Congress. Given the technological challenges the world faces today, we certainly need more politicians like Bill Foster. And we need far fewer politicians who pander to the likes and John Hagee and Tim LaHaye. (That's you, St. John)
It won't really change the "momentum" granted by the media, but momentum is bullshit. The fact is that some states are better for some candidates than others. And like any randomly generated system, the strong states for any candidate are not evenly distributed, but often come in clusters. Obama had "momentum" when his strong states came in a cluster. Then Hillary had "momentum" when her strong states came in a cluster. In the end, it's a race that's too close to be determined by the voters. Ultimately, the superdelegates will decide the election. If Clinton were to end up ahead in the pledged delegate count, I suspect Obama would probably concede in the interest of unity. But that won't happen. Instead, Obama will end up ahead in the pledged delegates and Hillary won't even think about giving up until she's mathematically eliminated, which won't occur until the convention.
Some people admire Clinton for her tenacity, but I don't. She just takes it too far. She is far more willing to destroy the party than she is to lose. And she may end up doing both if the convention gets nasty. I don't mind an extended race or even a brokered convention. But it really pisses me off that she is willing to sacrifice the general election to ensure that she's the nominee. What's sad about this is that I liked Hillary at the beginning of the campaign and felt she was being unfairly attacked. Through her actions in this campaign, I am now convinced of the opposite. Now I think she's Vladimir Putin in a pantsuit. I really don't want to vote for her, and I know I'm not alone. Sadly, the alternative is a man who will surely start the next world war. One can only hope he puts some bleachers in the sun and has it on Highway 61.
Update: With more than 7500 votes cast, Obama wins 61-38. This leads us to the obvious question: There are 7500 Democrats in Wyoming? Apparently so. I would never have believed it. Obama picks up two delegates from the contest. Which makes me ask the question: Why did I choose an odd number of delegates for Obama to net in a race where an even number of delegates were at play? I'm actually pretty good at math, so I'm a little embarrassed by making such an obvious mathematical blunder. But it turns out that the wacky Democratic rules have saved me. Wyoming will be granted one "add-on" delegate, which is awarded to the winner of the state by Wyoming rules. So Obama really did pick up 3 delegates, it's just that the third add-on delegate does not get officially awarded until the convention. I'm a little new to the add-on delegates and how they are doled out. When I know more, I'll explain them in detail. They could turn out to have as much influence as the superdelegates.
Also, there was a special election in Illinois' 14th district for Hastert's old seat. Democrat Bill Foster (no relation, probably) won comfortably. So the Dems picked up a House seat. Of course, they'll have to win it again in November, but now Foster runs as an incumbent. I wasn't even going to mention this race, but it turns out that Foster is a physicist. American politics is chock full of economists and lawyers, but it has a severe shortage of people who actually understand science. Bill Foster is a much needed addition to Congress. Given the technological challenges the world faces today, we certainly need more politicians like Bill Foster. And we need far fewer politicians who pander to the likes and John Hagee and Tim LaHaye. (That's you, St. John)
Monday, March 3, 2008
March 4 Primaries
First, with all the delegates at stake, you might think this could be a big day for one of the candidates. It won't. I'm predicting a delegate margin of less than 10 for the day.
Vermont and Rhode Island: Obama wins Vermont in a landslide and Hillary wins Rhode Island comfortably. As a result, the states will cancel each other out in delegates. Oh, and McCain wins comfortably in both. Move along, nothing to see here.
Ohio: Hillary wins by a narrow margin, but gains only a small delegate advantage. I was tempted to go with Obama because he's been gaining quickly and he's been outperforming the polls recently. But the Hillary started moving back up recently and I wasn't so sure. What pushed me over to Clinton is the recent Zogby poll showing Obama in the lead. Contrary to popular opinion, Zogby isn't actually the worst pollster. But he's bad enough to bet against with confidence. Oh, and McCain wins comfortably.
Texas: The counting goes well into the night with Obama winning by a razor-thin margin. But because of the bizarre delegate system in Texas (check the comments on the previous post for more detail), Obama actually gets a bigger delegate margin than Clinton gets in Ohio. As for McCain, if there were any chance of him losing the nomination, this would be a close race. But the far right has a campaign to vote for Hillary and Texas allows crossover voting. So McCain still wins comfortably.
Final Results: In terms of delegates I'm calling it a net 4 delegates for Obama, and a tiny win for Clinton in the overall popular vote. It doesn't really matter for McCain, Huckabee will finally drop out. But what about Clinton? She will end the night a little more behind and her chances will look pretty grim. But she won't drop out because she won Ohio, THE MOST IMPORTANT STATE IN AMERICA. She'll argue that she has more appeal in the swing states and deserves the nomination even if she can't win the pledged delegate battle.
But Wait, Is There More?: Yes, there could be. Gov Charlie Crist of Florida has offered to re-run the Democratic primary. Hillary would rather take her previous win, but she might not get it if the Rules Committee doesn't go along. So she might bite at that offer. And Obama would look really bad if he balked. He'd have to go along. So maybe Hillary could pick up some more delegates in Florida. What's especially interesting about the timing of the offer is that it would allow Republicans time to switch parties and throw the election more towards Hillary. Who knows? This move might put Florida Republicans in the position of deciding the Democratic nominee. I'll note that Gov. Crist is a big supporter of McCain and let you be the cynic.
Vermont and Rhode Island: Obama wins Vermont in a landslide and Hillary wins Rhode Island comfortably. As a result, the states will cancel each other out in delegates. Oh, and McCain wins comfortably in both. Move along, nothing to see here.
Ohio: Hillary wins by a narrow margin, but gains only a small delegate advantage. I was tempted to go with Obama because he's been gaining quickly and he's been outperforming the polls recently. But the Hillary started moving back up recently and I wasn't so sure. What pushed me over to Clinton is the recent Zogby poll showing Obama in the lead. Contrary to popular opinion, Zogby isn't actually the worst pollster. But he's bad enough to bet against with confidence. Oh, and McCain wins comfortably.
Texas: The counting goes well into the night with Obama winning by a razor-thin margin. But because of the bizarre delegate system in Texas (check the comments on the previous post for more detail), Obama actually gets a bigger delegate margin than Clinton gets in Ohio. As for McCain, if there were any chance of him losing the nomination, this would be a close race. But the far right has a campaign to vote for Hillary and Texas allows crossover voting. So McCain still wins comfortably.
Final Results: In terms of delegates I'm calling it a net 4 delegates for Obama, and a tiny win for Clinton in the overall popular vote. It doesn't really matter for McCain, Huckabee will finally drop out. But what about Clinton? She will end the night a little more behind and her chances will look pretty grim. But she won't drop out because she won Ohio, THE MOST IMPORTANT STATE IN AMERICA. She'll argue that she has more appeal in the swing states and deserves the nomination even if she can't win the pledged delegate battle.
But Wait, Is There More?: Yes, there could be. Gov Charlie Crist of Florida has offered to re-run the Democratic primary. Hillary would rather take her previous win, but she might not get it if the Rules Committee doesn't go along. So she might bite at that offer. And Obama would look really bad if he balked. He'd have to go along. So maybe Hillary could pick up some more delegates in Florida. What's especially interesting about the timing of the offer is that it would allow Republicans time to switch parties and throw the election more towards Hillary. Who knows? This move might put Florida Republicans in the position of deciding the Democratic nominee. I'll note that Gov. Crist is a big supporter of McCain and let you be the cynic.
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