Sunday, February 10, 2008
Maine
Forgot the Maine caucus. Obama will win narrowly. I had a bad prediction day yesterday. I was under the mistaken impression that Republicans would accept their fate and vote for McCain. I guess not. Obama had a much stronger showing than I would have thought. I knew he'd win, but the margins were astounding. I don't think he can win the nomination without the super delegates, but if he can have a strong showing in Ohio and Pennsylvania, he might come pretty close. He'll get crushed in Texas, but he'll have a lot of strong wins in other states. By the way, when was the last time Pennsylvania mattered? 1984 maybe?
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4 comments:
Did you see that Clinton fired her campaign mgr today? I wouldn't say there's a sense of panic from the Clinton campaign, but they obviously felt the need to shake things up.
I don't understand campaign finance at all. How could the Clinton campaign be low on money? She's hedging her bets now and hoping to win TX, OH, and PA in March. But by then, Obama might have all the momentum.
I'm more convinced than ever that I want Obama to get the nomination. Not only to I think he's more electable, and will bring independents to the party as well as be a unifying force, but hell, I'm really buying into the propaganda that it's simply time for a new voice in Presidential politics.
How could the Clinton campaign be low on money? Well, she's not. She's raised more money by far than any Democratic candidate in any previous election. Her problem is that Obama has raised even more. So she needs a little reorganization to try to keep up with Obama's spending. That campaign manager comes with a large, and now unaffordable, price.
I think she'll do well in Texas. But Ohio may not be as easy as she thinks. And if she only wins it by a narrow margin, it won't make up for the recent losses and the expected losses tomorrow. I think she's she's in trouble in Pennsylvania. There's almost a full month to campaign there (nothing else happening). Obama can outspend her big time and the long campaign for one state makes it more like a small state than a big one. With his stellar ground organization, I think Obama wins PA easily.
There's still the super delegates, but I don't think they'll swing the election if Obama has a sizable lead. I think he will at this point. If nothing else, I think the Clinton/ Guiliani "big state" strategy is proving to be a bust.
From MSNBC:
“She has to win both Ohio and Texas comfortably, or she’s out,” said one Democratic superdelegate who has endorsed Mrs. Clinton, and who spoke on condition of anonymity to share a candid assessment. “The campaign is starting to come to terms with that.” Campaign advisers, also speaking privately in order to speak plainly, confirmed this view.
Great quote. I just read that too. I think she'll win Texas comfortably. But I think Ohio will be very close. I'm really starting to think Obama will pull this off.
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