Obama wins Virginia comfortably. He'll get a close win in Maryland. And he'll win in a landslide in DC. Hillary has got to be concerned by now. And she is.* There will be no Obama/ Clinton ticket, by the way. Obama needs someone like Wes Clark on the ticket. Oh, and McCain wins all but Virginia comfortably, and gets a narrow win in Virginia.
*From Vox: "Said one superdelegate: 'She has to win both Ohio and Texas comfortably, or she’s out. The campaign is starting to come to terms with that.'"
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I'm so sick of the media speculation about a "superticket". Give me a freakin' break already. There is NO WAY these two will share a ticket.
Wes Clark would be an excellent running mate for either candidate. My hope would be that either candidate would choose their veep from a pool of candidates that did not run in the primaries. All of them are soiled in one way or the other.
I'm willing to go further than you Tom, and say that Obama will win Maryland by +5 points. I tempted to say he'll win bigger than that. I agree with you on VA and DC.
Well, Obama did get a big win in Maryland. In the past month, Obama seems to have mostly beat the polling predictions (and mine as well). Why is that? I've been thinking that the polling is being skewed by the issue of what a "likely voter" is. With record turnouts on the democratic side, there are a lot of voters who aren't considered "likely voters" but are actually voting. I think a majority of these extra voters are Obama supporters. He seems to inspire people more and has a better ground organization.
It's becoming very clear that Obama will simply be more electable in the general election than Clinton. Both McCain and Obama pull independents to their sides. If Clinton is the candidate, she'd have a hard time narrowing that gap.
I really liked Obama's speech last night as well. What the hell was Hillary doing in TX? This strategy will fail her. Obama will win big again in WI.
What do you think about reading Obama's book, The Audacity of Hope? I keep passing it by in B&N but almost bought it yesterday. I tend to stay away from that stuff because it's ghostwritten and a 200 page propaganda platform. But I'm considering picking it up. I just don't want 50 pages of "I was born to a teenage mother, and life was hard".
The only book by a politician that I've read is "Talking Peace" by Jimmy Carter. And he actually wrote it, too. It's written at a high school level (intentionally) and offers an interesting insight into the Middle East peace process. I'd certainly recommend it. But I usually don't read books by politicians.
As for Obama's book, I hadn't really planned on buying it. AJ Rossmiller's new book on intelligence failures in the Middle East seems more interesting to me. He was an intelligence officer in the Middle East division of the Defense Intelligence Agency during the run-up to the Iraq war. He usually has some very good insights and I think his book will be excellent.
As for Hillary and Wisconsin, she's making a big mistake not campaigning there. She has a shot at winning Wisconsin, but doesn't seem to want it.
I understand the delegates at stake in TX and right now, the race is for the nomination, not the White House. But Clinton is spending all of her money, and worse, her political capital, in a state the Democrats have no chance to carry in the general election. Again, this points towards Obama seeming to be more electable.
I can't bring myself to read his book. Right now, I'm reading a book by a Cornell guy: Steve Squyers book on the Mars Rovers. Great stuff.
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