Wisconsin and Hawaii

Polls show Hillary closing the gap on Obama in Wisconsin. I haven't seen a poll for Hawaii. I'll say Obama gets a narrow win in Wisconsin and a landslide win in Hawaii. I can't say I remember an election where Hawaii mattered. Of course, the Clinton campaign will say it doesn't matter, but that's only because she'll lose the state. But without polling it's hard to know. Maybe Clinton can pull out a win there and make the state matter. Oh, McCain will win both states in a landslide.

Update: Oops. The Republicans aren't voting in Hawaii. But they are voting in Washington. Again. This time it's a primary, instead of a caucus. Apparently, Washington wants to compete with Texas for the Weirdest Primary System award. McCain will win Washington narrowly.

Chessie Primary

Obama wins Virginia comfortably. He'll get a close win in Maryland. And he'll win in a landslide in DC. Hillary has got to be concerned by now. And she is.* There will be no Obama/ Clinton ticket, by the way. Obama needs someone like Wes Clark on the ticket. Oh, and McCain wins all but Virginia comfortably, and gets a narrow win in Virginia.

*From Vox: "Said one superdelegate: 'She has to win both Ohio and Texas comfortably, or she’s out. The campaign is starting to come to terms with that.'"

Maine

Forgot the Maine caucus. Obama will win narrowly. I had a bad prediction day yesterday. I was under the mistaken impression that Republicans would accept their fate and vote for McCain. I guess not. Obama had a much stronger showing than I would have thought. I knew he'd win, but the margins were astounding. I don't think he can win the nomination without the super delegates, but if he can have a strong showing in Ohio and Pennsylvania, he might come pretty close. He'll get crushed in Texas, but he'll have a lot of strong wins in other states. By the way, when was the last time Pennsylvania mattered? 1984 maybe?